Metis 1 Preview, the Parisi Labs price model, is live
A full distribution of prices for every 15-minute interval over the next 24 hours, at nodes across ERCOT, CAISO and NYISO, scored in public and built into the map, Radar, alerts, the agent and the Forecast API.
Metis 1 Preview is the Parisi Labs price model, and it is live across Ask the Grid. It reads recent and day-ahead prices together with the grid conditions around each location, then forecasts a full probability distribution for every 15-minute interval over the next 24 hours. It is re-issued hourly for settlement points across ERCOT, CAISO, and NYISO.
A distribution answers questions a single number cannot: how wide the plausible range is tomorrow evening, how much weight sits in the spike tail, whether a negative price is possible at midday. The model's output appears wherever a price does, with its issue time and build attached. It is scored in public against what the market settled, and served over the same Forecast API the product uses.
Explore the shape of the outlook
Open a supported pricing location's Performance section, a node's map card, or the chart studio and find the forward outlook. Shape uses density shading to show where the forecast places more probability and where it retains possible lower or higher price outcomes. Fan presents the same uncertainty as nested ranges.
The chart keeps the published day-ahead series beside the model. Read the legend and the visible horizon together: the market settlement and model issuance may cover different intervals, and their lines end with their available data.
Keep the vintage attached
Select the model series label to inspect its source details. The panel identifies issue time, model build, units, resolution, refresh cadence, and the interval covered by the trace. Every forecast value traces back to the issuance that produced it.
The developer console carries the model's page, specification, and a playground that writes the Forecast API request as you build it. Applications read the same forecasts the product draws, over the same endpoint.
Review the hours that actually settled
Settlement review aligns observed real-time prices, cleared day-ahead prices, and model forecasts available before delivery. Its trailing window and series labels state the comparison being made, keeping later model updates out of an earlier forecast's evaluation.
Scoring depends on matched observations. When there are too few matched hours, the page says so and keeps the chart for inspection. Use the available sample and the stated vintage basis when interpreting any reported metric.
Scored in public, including when it loses
The forecast accuracy page lists every forecast Ask the Grid publishes, scores each against what the market settled, and ranks it against others forecasting the same quantity. Price is ranked within its market. A cleared day-ahead auction stays on the page as the bar and is kept out of the head-to-head verdict, because it is a market result rather than a forecast issued at the same time.
Differences come with an interval, so a tie is an answer the page can give. The distribution-quality table scores Metis 1 Preview at its own 15-minute resolution, showing whether its p10 to p90 band holds the share of outcomes it should and how wide that band is.
Built into the rest of the workspace
The forecast volatility layer paints the width of the forecast distribution across the map from now forward, on single-market and national maps. On a market's own map, scrubbing into the future colours each node by its forecast price. The agent can screen a whole market by band width, upside tail, or negative-price risk to answer which nodes could spike tomorrow.
Radar and Today raise watch findings when the model's median crosses a market's own spike or negative-price line at a location that has been quiet. Alerts can watch the forecast price at a node, labelled as a preview model everywhere it appears. Any signed-in account reads the forecast at ERCOT hubs and load zones and CAISO trading hubs; other settlement points come with an enterprise plan or API access.