West’s real-time premium over Houston averaged $33.05/MWh from midnight until 8 AM CDT Oct. 31

That development arrived after—not during—the evening setup discussed yesterday. From 6 PM until 10 PM CDT Oct. 30, Hub Average real time averaged $13.03/MWh below its $52.17/MWh clearance, and every regional hub underperformed day-ahead. West’s real-time premium over Houston averaged only $1.69/MWh against a cleared $5.85/MWh. The overnight move therefore does not validate yesterday’s evening regional premium.

The overnight upside was uneven. Houston itself averaged $4.89/MWh above day-ahead, while North remained $2.48/MWh below. Aggregate load surprise offers little explanation for West’s much larger outperformance: overnight demand averaged 46,128 MW, only 86 MW above forecast across seven matched observations; one of the eight hours lacks demand coverage. The useful distinction is regional amplification, not a demonstrated system-wide tightening.

For Oct. 31 from 6 PM until 10 PM CDT, day-ahead prices a larger West–Houston premium of $13.45/MWh. Keep that relationship separate from the outright evening view. Hub Average clears the four hours at $56.76/MWh; Metis 1 Preview, issued Oct. 31 at 6:55 AM CDT, puts its middle forecast at $54.00/MWh. That modest downside gap offers little conviction: the hour beginning 6 PM clears at $59.62/MWh inside the model’s $42.33–$86.88/MWh p10–p90 band. These are hourly means of interval quantiles, not probabilities of beating day-ahead or evidence of forecast skill.

The next test is whether West’s separation reaches the evening hours. For Oct. 31 from 6 PM until 10 PM CDT, a mean West–Houston real-time premium matching or exceeding the cleared $13.45/MWh would support the regional pricing; renewed near-convergence would leave it unvalidated again. Do not carry the overnight $33.05/MWh premium mechanically into that different operating window.