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Website · About · Legal · Privacy · Changelog · © 2026 Parisi Labs
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ERCOT

ERCOT Morning Briefing

Every morning at 8:00 AM Central, get today’s load and price outlook, the hours most likely to matter, weather, outages, operator notices, and the overnight changes that could shape the day. Every issue is delivered by email and saved on Ask the Grid, so you can read it on-platform and return to the archive at any time.

Written by the grid agent for Ask the Grid

Delivery

Every issue by email and on Ask the Grid

Inside

Load, prices, weather, outages, notices, and watch hours

Availability

Published daily at 8:00 AM Central and kept in the archive

Latest issue

Sun, October 11, 2026 · Oct 10 to Oct 11, 2026

Public issue

ERCOT's $39.47/MWh evening puts late West discounts in focus

As it arrives by email

Open issue

Recent issues

  1. No. 3 · Oct 10Hub Average's 6 PM cleared peak drops to $53.82/MWhSaturday, Oct 10, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  2. No. 2 · Oct 9Lower cleared prices leave West's separation worth testingFriday, Oct 9, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  3. No. 1 · Oct 8Real-Time Blew Past Yesterday's Day-Ahead Call; Tonight Prices Another SpikeThursday, Oct 8, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  4. Oct 7Day-Ahead Curve Prices a 98th-Percentile Evening Peak Into Tonight's RampWednesday, Oct 7, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  5. Oct 6Record Outages Meet a 97th-Percentile Ramp on an Otherwise Soft Demand DayTuesday, Oct 6, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  6. Oct 5West Hub's Overnight Price Gap Breaks Its BandMonday, Oct 5, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  7. Oct 4West and South Hubs Split Overnight; Today's Demand Stays LooseSunday, Oct 4, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  8. Oct 3Model Runs Richer Than the Cleared Curve Into Tonight's PeakSaturday, Oct 3, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  9. Oct 2Hub split at Oct 1 close: West spikes while North and Houston fadeFriday, Oct 2, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  10. Oct 1Houston Flips to $6.9/MWh Premium as West's Discount DeepensThursday, Oct 1, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
  11. Sep 30, 2026 · not sent, held for review
  12. Sep 29Routine Day: Tonight's 7 PM Ramp Meets $43.6/MWh Day-Ahead PeakTuesday, Sep 29, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT

Call record

9 graded sessions · the 9 most recent, ending Oct 9 to Oct 10, 2026
Cleared curve, price level
missed in 6 of the last 9 graded sessions. The cleared day-ahead curve's price level did not verify in 6 of the last 9 graded sessions.
Called peak hour
landed outside the called hour in 3 of the last 8 graded sessions. The realized peak landed outside the hour the cleared curve centred on in 3 of the last 8 graded sessions.

The last call: The cleared curve missed the level; the house model's call held (4 confirmed, 1 missed)

  • Selected day-ahead peaks of $52.2-$56.5/MWhReal-time peaks of $31.0-$33.8/MWh, entirely below the expected range; 37% outside it (confirmed within 10%, partial within 20%)Missed
  • Hub peaks centered near Oct 10, 6 PM CDTRealized peaks ranged from Oct 10, 6 PM CDT to Oct 10, 7 PM CDTConfirmed
  • A synchronized selected-hub price peak1-hour selected-hub peak dispersionConfirmed
  • Metis 1 Preview nodal price P50 peak of $34.4/MWh at Oct 10, 6 PM CDT for ERCOT Hub AverageRealized real-time peak of $31.4/MWh, in the called hourConfirmed
  • Forecast load peak 73,043 MWRealized load peak 71,643 MW, 1,400 MW against the 2,027 MW band that issue publishedConfirmed

Questions this report answers

  1. 01Where is ERCOT demand headed today, and which hours carry the most risk?
  2. 02Which hubs and real-time versus day-ahead spreads deserve attention?
  3. 03Are outages, weather, operator notices, or regulatory changes altering the setup?
  4. 04What changed since the last issue, and what should the desk watch next?

Read it in your inbox. Keep it on Ask the Grid.

Each email carries the morning read: the call, the key figures, tonight's window and the chart that proves it, with paths into the live grid. The full issue stays in Ask the Grid with every chart, the graded record and the sources, to reopen, print or compare with the next edition.

The email edition of the ERCOT Morning Briefing: the day's headline, date and key figures
Every issue is delivered by email and stays readable on Ask the Grid.

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