ERCOT’s late-evening surge leaves Houston behind

The original Nov. 11 test, from 5 PM until 8 PM, delivered a West–North premium of $29.70/MWh against $27.89 cleared. North ran $56.50/MWh above day-ahead and West $58.31 above. The widening came through West outperformance, not renewed North weakness. Today’s matching clearance narrows the premium to $22.73/MWh.

West’s rolling Nov. 11 at 8 AM to Nov. 12 at 8 AM average rose to $104.12/MWh from $56.74, breaking its two-window retreat. That sharpens the running West-lead story against seven-issue and 30-issue baselines of $47.59 and $35.22. Demand during the late surge averaged 51,536 MW, only 686 MW above forecast; demand over the full rolling window barely changed from the preceding issue. Hub Average returned to $40.61/MWh in the hour beginning Nov. 12 at 7 AM, favoring an evening-event focus over an all-day price-reset assumption.

Metis’s 6:55 AM CST forecast has a wide range. The $100/MWh hourly watch sits above every late-window clearance and the highest hourly upper-band reading of $93.17/MWh. Crossing that boundary would warrant renewed attention to late-hour price spikes despite the lower central outlook.