Nov. 1 day-ahead: West averages $15.95/MWh below Houston from 6 PM until 10 PM CST

Yesterday’s West premium did reach the evening window under watch. From 6 PM until 10 PM CDT Oct. 31, its matched-hour real-time premium over Houston averaged $32.84/MWh, exceeding the $13.45/MWh cleared premium in all four hours. But West amplified a broad move: every regional hub exceeded day-ahead, while Hub Average real time averaged $85.69/MWh against a $56.76/MWh clearance. This was not solely a West price event.

Aggregate load underforecasting does not explain that four-hour price overshoot: demand averaged 57,121 MW, 217 MW below forecast across all four matched hours. Nor did West’s relative strength persist overnight. From midnight CDT Nov. 1 until 8 AM CST—nine elapsed hours through the clock change—the West–Houston real-time premium narrowed to $1.27/MWh on average and turned negative in the latest hour. Yesterday’s evening separation therefore should not be carried mechanically into today.

There is a separate, qualified signal for broad evening upside. For the earlier three-hour window from 5 PM until 8 PM CST Nov. 1, Metis 1 Preview’s middle Hub Average forecast averages $45.63/MWh against $37.59/MWh cleared day-ahead, an $8.04/MWh gap. The forecast was issued today at 6:55 AM CST. Uncertainty limits conviction: every hour’s clearance remains within its p10–p90 band. For the hour beginning 5 PM, the $43.68/MWh clearance sits within a $38.51–$70.00/MWh band. Those hourly averages of interval quantiles are not probabilities of beating day-ahead.

The next regional test is Nov. 1 from 6 PM until 10 PM CST: a positive mean West-minus-Houston real-time spread would overturn today’s cleared ranking and put renewed West strength back on the desk’s agenda. A smaller West discount would challenge the size of the clearance without restoring yesterday’s premium. Check both hubs’ outright prices and performance against day-ahead to distinguish West strength from Houston weakness.