ERCOT's own intraday projection of demand against the capacity expected to be available — the gap between the two is the reserve the grid is actually operating on right now.
Forecast demand peaks at 68,269 MW on Tue 12 AM, against a low of 67,938 MW — a swing of 331 MW across the window. Forecast demand is the heaviest zone at 68,269 MW.
Plotted window Aug 10, 11:30 PM CDT → Aug 11, 12:00 AM CDT. Refreshed continuously; the latest published outlook is shown.
Every line above, and who produced it.
The grid operator's own published forecast for these hours. Source: ERCOT.
Generating capacity expected to be available to serve demand.
Each day of the window on its own.
Every hour of the window, shaded by load.
| Series | Peak (MW) | Peak hour | Low (MW) | Average (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast demand | 68,269 | Tue 12 AM | 67,938 | 68,103 |
| Forecast available capacity | 95,801 | Tue 12 AM | 91,371 | 93,586 |
| Planned outage capacity | 10,180 | Tue 12 PM | 5,333 | 6,866 |
| Forecast | Produced by | Method | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast demand | ERCOT | Supply and demand dashboard feed (forward forecast series) | ERCOT's intraday forward outlook — hours ahead, not days |
| Forecast available capacity | ERCOT | Supply and demand dashboard feed (forward forecast series) | ERCOT's intraday forward outlook — hours ahead, not days |
Both curves are ERCOT point projections with no confidence band. Available capacity moves quickly as units trip, return, or are committed — it is an expectation, not a commitment.
Two forward curves from ERCOT's supply-and-demand feed: projected demand, and the generating capacity expected to be available to serve it. The distance between them is the operating reserve — the buffer the grid has left. This is ERCOT's intraday outlook, so it looks hours ahead rather than days; for the week-ahead demand picture, see the load forecast.
A comfortable grid shows a wide, steady gap between capacity and demand. Tight conditions look like the two curves converging, usually in the late-afternoon and early-evening hours when demand peaks and solar falls away. It is the narrowing of that gap, not the absolute level of demand, that drives ERCOT's conservation appeals and emergency notices.
As reserves fall, ERCOT moves through defined operating conditions — advisories, watches, and then Energy Emergency Alert levels. Prices respond well before that: ERCOT's scarcity pricing mechanism raises prices sharply as reserves tighten, which is the market's signal for more generation to come online.
curl "https://askthegrid.com/api/v1/grid/radar/curves?iso=ERCOT"
Connect your agent to mcp.askthegrid.com and this forecast is a tool call away — the same host Claude and ChatGPT connectors already use.
The honest answer is in the gap between the two curves above, for the hours ERCOT has published. When forecast available capacity sits comfortably above forecast demand across the peak hours, the grid has room. When they converge, reserves are tight and ERCOT may issue conservation appeals. This page shows ERCOT's own intraday numbers rather than a prediction of its operational decisions.
The amount of generating capacity available above what is needed to meet demand, usually expressed in megawatts or as a percentage. It is the buffer that absorbs a unit tripping offline, demand coming in above forecast, or wind and solar underdelivering.
A defined set of escalating operating states ERCOT enters when operating reserves fall below specific thresholds. Each level unlocks additional tools — deploying reserves, calling on demand response, and at the most severe level, controlled load shedding to protect the grid.
Because reducing demand during the tightest hours directly widens the reserve margin. Conservation appeals are typically issued when the forecast shows demand approaching available capacity during the evening peak, and they are a normal operating tool, not in themselves a sign that outages are imminent.
No. Tight reserves are a normal and frequent condition in ERCOT, especially on hot summer evenings, and they are usually resolved by generation responding to high prices and by demand response. Controlled outages are the last step in a long escalation and are rare.