ERCOT Current Supply, Demand and Intraday Forecast

This is the preferred dataset for a current actual-versus-forecast demand comparison: series='realized' reports observed demand_mw and committed capacity_mw; series='intraday_forecast' reports demand_mw, capacity_mw, and available_mw for the same target event_time at successive source_time vintages, where the on-the-hour values are hourly-average forecasts and the points between them are interpolated; and series='forward_forecast' reports forecasted_demand_mw and avail_cap_gen_mw farther ahead. Operators, traders, and researchers use it to measure current forecast error, headroom, and how forecasts converge toward realized demand.

Query contract

Filter series explicitly. For an actual-versus-forecast comparison, take the latest complete clock hour of series='realized' and average its demand_mw. Compare that mean with series='intraday_forecast' at the event_time that ends the hour (minute 0), at the greatest source_time no later than 60 minutes before that event_time. Keep the hour, the target, and the issue time in the result.

Analysis rules

Never aggregate realized and forecast series together.series='realized' uses demand_mw as observed gross system demand. series='intraday_forecast' uses demand_mw as forecast gross demand; its on-the-hour values are hourly averages stamped hour-ending. Compare an hourly mean of realized demand with the forecast stamped at the end of that hour, and report actual minus forecast with its sign.

Interpretation

event_time is the observation or forecast target. source_time is the forecast issue time; realized rows use a 1970 sentinel and do not represent a publication vintage.A current intraday demand forecast miss is a gross-demand error. Generation output, renewable shortfalls, and available capacity are different quantities and do not directly cause that arithmetic error.

Related analysis

settled historical demand after the live window · aggregate both series to compatible 15-minute interval-ending buckets before comparison

Plans

See available download and API access options. View pricing

MCP

Connect an MCP client and load the contract with describe_data before calling query_data.ERCOT MCPAPI reference

HTTP endpoint

POST /api/v1/datasets/ercot_supply_demand/query

Full history

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