ERCOT Hub Average real time averaged $9.28/MWh below day-ahead from 6 PM until 10 PM CDT on Oct. 29

Every regional hub finished below its own clearance in that four-hour window. West had the largest shortfall, at $11.08/MWh, but its absolute real-time price averaged only $0.36/MWh below Houston: the distinction was mainly West’s higher clearance, not a sizeable real-time discount. System-load forecast error offers little explanation for the broad downside result. Demand averaged 57,811 MW, just 86 MW above forecast in the same hours.

For Oct. 30 from 6 PM until 10 PM CDT, Hub Average clears at $52.17/MWh, materially above yesterday’s $42.59/MWh. West also carries a larger regional premium: it clears $5.85/MWh above Houston, versus $2.03/MWh yesterday. The useful regional question is whether that premium appears in real time; yesterday’s near-convergence did not validate West strength.

Metis 1 Preview, issued Oct. 30 at 6:55 AM CDT, puts the Hub Average middle forecast at $46.03/MWh for today’s same four hours, below clearance. Uncertainty weakens that downside signal: in the hour beginning 8 PM CDT, the $54.01/MWh clearance sits inside the model’s $36.90–$66.12/MWh p10–p90 range. Those bounds are hourly averages of interval quantiles, not probabilities of beating day-ahead; the forecast gap alone does not establish predictive skill.

For Oct. 30 from 6 PM until 10 PM CDT, an average Hub Average real-time-minus-day-ahead spread above $0/MWh would reverse yesterday’s downside outcome against a substantially higher clearance, shifting attention toward broad evening price strength. Separately, a sustained West real-time premium over Houston approaching the cleared $5.85/MWh would support the regional repricing; continued near-zero separation would leave that premium unvalidated.