Overnight Hub Average real-time price averages $23.96/MWh; 4–7 PM remains the convergence test

The completed Oct. 25 window from 6 PM until 9 PM settled below day-ahead across every tracked hub. Hub Average averaged $29.35/MWh real time versus $35.32/MWh day-ahead, a -$5.97/MWh spread; hub spreads ranged from -$5.37/MWh at North to -$6.58/MWh at West. Demand averaged 57,466 MW, 158 MW above forecast, without producing a relative hub dislocation.

For Oct. 26, Hub Average day-ahead averages $60.76/MWh from 4 PM until 7 PM and peaks at $69.07/MWh in the 5 PM hour. The updated model middle forecast averages $53.22/MWh over those same hours, $7.54/MWh below clearance. West has the highest 5 PM hub clearance at $73.15/MWh, while system load is forecast to peak at 61,667 MW. Physical reserves fell 3,674 MW over the three hours ending 8 AM, but there is no new causal evidence linking that move or the evening price structure to a specific outage or constraint. No materially updated operator notice changes today’s near-term view. Desk focus remains 4–7 PM convergence, West’s 5 PM clearance, demand against 62,000 MW and any further reserve deterioration or fresh ERCOT notice.

• Hub Average real time minus day-ahead averaging below -$10/MWh from 4 PM until 7 PM CDT on Oct. 26 would mark a materially deeper evening discount than the model middle forecast’s $7.54/MWh gap to clearance over those hours.
• ERCOT demand rising above 62,000 MW from 4 PM until 7 PM CDT on Oct. 26 would exceed the current 61,667 MW forecast peak.