West hourly real-time prices ranged from −$1.31 to $0.65/MWh from midnight until 8 AM CST Nov. 2

Yesterday’s regional reversal largely followed the cleared expectation. From 6 PM until 10 PM CST Nov. 1, West averaged $15.49/MWh below Houston in real time, close to the $15.95/MWh cleared discount. West remained cheaper in all four hours. Both hubs declined through that window, but West fell much further: the widening discount was not a Houston outright rally.

The separate possibility of broad evening upside did not materialize in its original window. From 5 PM until 8 PM CST Nov. 1, Hub Average real time averaged $33.41/MWh, $4.18/MWh below day-ahead; every regional hub also averaged below clearance. All four regional hubs remained below clearance on average in the later 6–10 PM window, despite demand averaging 473 MW above forecast. Aggregate load underforecasting did not translate into an evening price overshoot.

Today’s load forecast peaks at 66,396 MW in the hour beginning 4 PM CST, compared with 62,941 MW observed in the same hour Nov. 1. That warrants reassessing afternoon prices, but does not establish tightness. Today’s cleared day-ahead curve is unavailable in this snapshot, and the latest model run is stale, issued Nov. 1 at 3:55 PM CST; neither supports a current broad RT-versus-DA call.

The next useful test is whether West’s weakness survives the afternoon load build. At least one West hourly real-time mean below $0/MWh from 2 PM until 6 PM CST Nov. 2 would extend the overnight pattern into the forecast peak-load window and keep West–Houston separation in focus. If the discount instead narrows, distinguish a West recovery from a Houston decline before treating it as renewed West strength.