ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead averages $150.86/MWh for Nov. 3, 9 PM–midnight CST

Yesterday’s afternoon upside was predominantly local. From 2 PM until 6 PM CST Nov. 2, Houston averaged $101.08/MWh above day-ahead; North and West averaged below clearance, while South averaged only $2.83/MWh above it. System demand averaged 156 MW below forecast over those same hours, so an aggregate load surprise does not explain Houston’s overshoot. Houston reached $223.91/MWh in the hour beginning 4 PM, against $51.17/MWh cleared.

West’s negative-price watch was met in the hours beginning 2 and 3 PM Nov. 2, but that weakness did not survive the evening. From 6 PM until 10 PM CST, West averaged $13.08/MWh above Houston and was more expensive in all four hours. Both legs contributed: West recovered while Houston’s spike unwound. Carrying a persistent West discount into today would miss that reversal.

Today’s load outlook also argues against simply extrapolating yesterday. Forecast demand peaks at 59,328 MW in the hour beginning 4 PM Nov. 3, versus 65,881 MW observed in the same hour Nov. 2, then declines while cleared prices rise. The fresh Metis 1 Preview, issued at 6:55 AM CST Nov. 3, puts its middle Hub Average forecast at $85.54/MWh from 9 PM until midnight—$65.32/MWh below clearance. But the uncertainty materially weakens a below-clearance view: in the 9 PM hour, reported p10/p90 hourly averages are $36.95/$240.62 against $161.48/MWh cleared. Those are averages of interval quantiles, not probabilities of beating day-ahead or bounds for the three-hour average.

Watch whether Hub Average real time minus day-ahead averages above $0/MWh from 9 PM until midnight CST Nov. 3. Beating an already expensive clearance would keep late-evening upside risk in focus despite the lower-load setup. Inspect the regional spreads alongside it: shared positive spreads would support a broad evening-risk interpretation; a Houston-only overshoot would instead keep regional separation at the center of the desk discussion.