South’s real-time premium to Houston averaged $163.03/MWh from 5 PM until 8 PM CST Nov. 3

The prior late-evening test produced a different outcome. From 9 PM until midnight CST Nov. 3, Hub Average realized $63.57/MWh against $150.86/MWh cleared, averaging $87.28/MWh below day-ahead. Every regional hub undershot clearance. The expensive late benchmark did not hold; the consequential realized upside occurred earlier.

An unexpected aggregate load increase does not explain the early-evening overshoot: system demand averaged 723 MW below forecast from 5 PM until 8 PM Nov. 3. Today’s load forecast peaks at 56,534 MW in the hour beginning 4 PM CST, versus 59,935 MW observed at that same hour yesterday. For today’s 5 PM until 8 PM window, Hub Average clears at $47.30/MWh, versus $115.61/MWh yesterday, and South’s cleared premium to Houston is only $4.70/MWh. Yesterday’s regional separation deserves monitoring, not extrapolation.

The Metis 1 Preview issued at 6:55 AM CST Nov. 4 puts its middle Hub Average forecast at $40.84/MWh for 5 PM until 8 PM, $6.46/MWh below clearance. That is a modest below-clearance indication, not a strong directional signal. Every hourly clearance lies within its corresponding averaged p10–p90 band; for the hour beginning 5 PM, that band is $32.35–$73.77/MWh against $59.21/MWh cleared. These are averages of interval quantiles, not probabilities of beating day-ahead.

Watch whether Hub Average real time minus day-ahead averages above $0/MWh from 5 PM until 8 PM CST Nov. 4. Beating today’s much lower clearance would challenge the softer setup. Shared positive regional spreads would support a broad evening-risk interpretation; South strength with Houston still below clearance would instead keep regional separation central.