West’s day-ahead premium to Houston averages $23.12/MWh from 5 PM until 8 PM CST Nov. 6

Yesterday’s Houston–North test showed less separation than priced, but not its disappearance. From 11 AM until 5 PM CST Nov. 5, the realized premium averaged $27.00/MWh versus $35.39/MWh cleared. Houston undershot its clearance more than North did; compression was not driven by North recovering. Today’s cleared premium for those hours is much narrower at $12.19/MWh, reducing the relevance of carrying yesterday’s wide-gap setup forward. South–Houston also underdelivered its priced evening premium yesterday, even though every regional hub exceeded day-ahead—relative-price disappointment was not broad evening softness.

Today’s evening repricing extends beyond West. Hub Average clears at $68.78/MWh from 5 PM until 8 PM CST, compared with yesterday’s $42.33/MWh clearance and $50.61/MWh realization in the same hours. Yet the current load forecast peaks at 55,748 MW in the hour beginning 4 PM today, below yesterday’s observed 60,751 MW in the hour beginning 5 PM. These are different peak hours, but they argue against treating the richer price curve as a straightforward higher-demand story.

Metis 1 Preview, issued at 6:55 AM CST today, offers a counterweight rather than confirmation: its Hub Average middle forecast averages $60.50/MWh from 5 PM until 8 PM, $8.28/MWh below clearance. Uncertainty is substantial. For the hour beginning 5 PM, the middle forecast is $66.47/MWh and the hourly averages of its interval p10 and p90 values are $46.68 and $108.70/MWh, spanning the $74.85/MWh clearance. Those bands are not probabilities of beating day-ahead, and the Hub Average forecast does not resolve West–Houston’s outcome.

For Nov. 6 from 5 PM until 8 PM CST, test the realized West–Houston average premium against the $23.12/MWh cleared benchmark. Material compression would weaken the case for West leadership; inspect both outrights to distinguish West failing to lift from Houston strengthening. Keep that test separate from whether Hub Average delivers its $68.78/MWh evening clearance: regional compression alongside a firm overall price would favor attention to outright evening risk, not a conclusion that the whole market softened.