Houston’s day-ahead premium to North averages $35.39/MWh from 11 AM until 5 PM CST Nov. 5

The repricing involves both sides: Houston’s clearance is higher than yesterday’s corresponding $36.09/MWh, while North’s is lower than yesterday’s $13.89/MWh. Keep the two outright prices alongside the spread. A narrower realized gap driven by North recovering would carry a different risk implication from one driven by Houston weakening.

Yesterday’s early evening did not renew the previous regional spike. From 5 PM until 8 PM CST Nov. 4, Hub Average realized $41.76/MWh against $47.30/MWh cleared, averaging $5.54/MWh below day-ahead; every regional hub undershot its clearance. South’s matched-hour premium to Houston was only $1.37/MWh, versus $163.03/MWh in the same Nov. 3 window. Demand averaged 647 MW above forecast during yesterday’s window, so an unexpectedly weak aggregate load outcome does not explain that below-clearance result.

Do not turn that outcome into an assumption that regional risk has disappeared. For 5 PM until 8 PM CST today, South’s cleared premium to Houston is $15.77/MWh—separation yesterday’s real time did not deliver. The load forecast also averages 58,990 MW in that window, versus 57,573 MW realized yesterday. Preparation should therefore center on whether the priced regional gaps materialize, rather than a blanket expectation of another soft evening.

The first test is today’s Houston–North premium from 11 AM until 5 PM CST against the $35.39/MWh cleared benchmark. Material compression would weaken the case for persistent daytime separation; inspect which hub drives it before extending that conclusion to the evening South–Houston relationship.