North’s retreat ends the joint rally with West
ERCOT daily briefing
Issue of Nov 10 · generated 8:09 AM CTLatest
Bottom line
West remains the high-priced hub, but North now trails Houston and South. Tonight’s $14/MWh West–North evening clearance is the next useful test of that split.
North real time averaged $5/MWh below day-ahead over the rolling 24 hours, while West averaged $11 above; their four-issue rally has ended.
West–Houston’s premium delivered $30/MWh against $15 cleared from 8 PM until 11 PM CST Nov. 9, so the prior late-window shortfall concern did not recur.
Nov. 10 from 5 PM until 8 PM, West–North clears at $14/MWh, while Hub Average clears at $68/MWh.
West–North averaging above its $14/MWh clearance from 5 PM until 8 PM Nov. 10, with North also averaging below day-ahead, would reinforce the regional split rather than a broad evening rally.
The story so far
- The four-issue West/North rally ended: both rolling averages fell, and North slipped below Houston and South while West retained its premium.Resolved
- North real time
- $33/MWh
- Rolling 24 hours, versus $67 in the preceding issue
- West–North clearance
- $14/MWh
- Nov. 10 from 5 PM until 8 PM
Over Nov. 9 at 8 AM to Nov. 10 at 8 AM CST, North fell to $33.26/MWh from $67.02 in the preceding issue window; West eased to $62.69 from $81.22. West remains well above its previous seven-issue average of $42.35, while North is below its $35.88 baseline. Hub Average’s four-issue rise also ended, although its $44.72 level remains above the previous seven-issue $39.62 and 30-issue $33.07 averages.
The comparable peak hours show why West’s relative strength is not a broad upside signal. From 5 PM until 8 PM Nov. 9, every hub missed day-ahead. North missed by $11.97/MWh, versus $1.87 at West. Their matched-hour real-time premium reached $24.52/MWh against $14.42 cleared: the wider spread reflected North’s larger shortfall, not West beating its own clearance.
Metis 1 Preview, issued Nov. 10 at 6:55 AM CST, averages $62.46/MWh for Hub Average from 5 PM until 8 PM today, versus $67.60 cleared. That modest gap, alongside a wide model range, leaves regional delivery against the cleared spread as the more useful desk focus.
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| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 to Nov 10, 2026Reading | Nov 10, 2026 | |
| Nov 8 to Nov 9, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | |
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