Oct. 26 4-7 PM Hub Average day-ahead averages $60.76/MWh; model P50 averages $51.94/MWh

Since the previous issue, comparable-window real-time averages rose at Hub Average, North, South and West by $2.22-$4.53/MWh; Houston fell $1.64/MWh. Over the latest 24 hours, Hub Average averaged $20.88/MWh against $22.26/MWh day-ahead, a -$1.38/MWh spread. Houston was the only tracked hub above day-ahead, averaging $26.83/MWh real time versus $25.47/MWh cleared, a $1.35/MWh spread. Overnight from midnight until 8 AM CDT, Hub Average averaged $19.62/MWh, North $18.12/MWh, South $18.69/MWh and Houston $23.43/MWh; demand averaged 46,829 MW, 353 MW below forecast.

The prior 6-9 PM balanced view is not yet complete. Through the two observed hours beginning at 6 PM and 7 PM, Hub Average real time averaged $29.04/MWh against $35.79/MWh day-ahead, a -$6.75/MWh spread; the 8 PM hour was not observed at this cutoff. Houston retained an absolute afternoon price premium, but its earlier relative performance against day-ahead did not repeat: from noon until 4 PM its RT-minus-DA spread averaged $4.42/MWh, close to North’s $4.13/MWh and West’s $4.68/MWh, and its largest same-hour advantage over the typical hub was $10.74/MWh at 3 PM.

Physical reserves fell 5,487 MW over the latest three hours, but there is no new causal evidence tying that move or today’s hub pricing to a specific outage or constraint. For Oct. 26, watch 4-7 PM convergence, demand against the 61,798 MW forecast peak, reserve conditions and any fresh ERCOT notices.

• Hub Average real time minus day-ahead averaging below -$10/MWh from 4 PM until 7 PM CDT on Oct. 26 would show a materially deeper discount than the model’s $8.82/MWh middle-forecast gap.
• ERCOT demand exceeding 62,000 MW from 4 PM until 7 PM CDT on Oct. 26 would put load above the current 61,798 MW forecast peak.