ERCOT’s four tracked hubs averaged $86.49/MWh in real time in Oct. 26’s 9 PM hour

Yesterday’s original 4 PM until 7 PM convergence window also finished above clearance: Hub Average RT-minus-DA averaged +$3.97/MWh rather than the model-indicated discount. Yet demand peaked at 60,006 MW, below the 61,667 MW forecast cited yesterday. At the later 9 PM price peak, demand was 57,083 MW—926 MW below its same-hour forecast. These observations do not support an upside system-load surprise as the explanation for the price strength.

The premium continued overnight. From midnight until 8 AM on Oct. 27, Hub Average real time averaged $44.52/MWh, $6.40/MWh above day-ahead. Houston was then the lowest-priced hub at $41.86/MWh, while West averaged $50.10/MWh. Yesterday’s Houston leadership therefore should not be treated as a persistent local relationship.

Today’s clearance is softer, but the forecast does not provide a strong discount signal. For Oct. 27 from 6 PM until 9 PM, Hub Average day-ahead averages $40.04/MWh versus $37.86/MWh from Metis 1 Preview’s middle forecast, issued at 6:55 AM CDT. That $2.18/MWh gap is small relative to uncertainty: for the hour beginning 6 PM, the model’s averaged interval p10–p90 bounds are $33.82–$62.93/MWh, spanning the $43.84/MWh clearance. Those bounds are not probabilities of beating day-ahead. The subsequent 9 PM hour clears at $29.28/MWh, making yesterday’s late strength worth checking beyond the model’s three-hour summary.

For Oct. 27, watch Hub Average RT-minus-DA averaging above $10/MWh from 6 PM until 10 PM CDT. This four-hour check deliberately includes yesterday’s 9 PM peak hour. A premium of that size would materially challenge the near-clearance evening setup; an average at or below day-ahead would weaken the case that yesterday’s late premium is persisting.