Load Forecast (MTLF)

ERCOT's mid-term load forecast (MTLF) for the Texas grid, giving the expected electricity demand for each of the next seven days at hourly resolution.

Load data ERCOT market

Query with the agent Open on map

Native record

weather zone x target hour x forecast vintage x model

hourly (7-day forecast) publication cadence

Evidence

Forecast data

Forward-looking values with an explicit issue time

In Ask the Grid

Zones on the ERCOT map

Values for the live grid surface

Overview

The forecast is broken out by ERCOT's eight weather zones plus a system-wide total, and a new vintage is issued every hour, so you can also see how the outlook for a given day shifts as it approaches. Operators use this to plan generation and reserves, while traders and researchers use it to anticipate price and tightness conditions and to study how forecasts evolve and where they miss. The official source is ERCOT report NP3-565-CD, Seven-Day Load Forecast by Weather Zone.

Query contract

For each target hour, select the row flagged in use from the latest source_time vintage that was actually available by the analysis cutoff. For forecast accuracy, source_time must be no later than event_time; keep both columns in the result so issue time and target time remain distinct.

Analysis rules

Do not sum forecast vintages.

Interpretation

system_total_mw is a forecast of gross system electricity demand, not net load and not the generation required after renewable output. Actual-minus-forecast is a gross-demand forecast error; a wind or solar generation shortfall does not by itself cause that error.
Never evaluate a historical forecast with a source_time after its event_time. That is a hindsight vintage, not a forecast that operators could have used.

Access

Query from your own tools

Use the guarded HTTP endpoint directly, or connect an MCP client and load the dataset contract with describe_data before calling query_data.

ERCOT MCP API reference

HTTP endpoint

POST /api/v1/datasets/ercot_load_forecast/query

Schema17

Column

Type

event_timeDateTime64(6, 'UTC')

source_timeDateTime64(6, 'UTC')

modelLowCardinality(String)

coast_mwNullable(Float64)

east_mwNullable(Float64)

far_west_mwNullable(Float64)

north_mwNullable(Float64)

north_central_mwNullable(Float64)

south_central_mwNullable(Float64)

southern_mwNullable(Float64)

west_mwNullable(Float64)

system_total_mwNullable(Float64)

in_use_flagNullable(Bool)

dst_flagNullable(Bool)

emil_idNullable(String)

doc_idNullable(Int64)

ingested_atDateTime64(6, 'UTC')

Sample data

event_time	source_time	model	coast_mw	east_mw	far_west_mw	north_mw	north_central_mw	south_central_mw	southern_mw	west_mw	system_total_mw	in_use_flag	dst_flag	emil_id	doc_id	ingested_at
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 03:30:00.000000	X	15455	1926.65	7332.3301	1635.51	16127.9004	10035.7998	5082.9199	1903.66	59499.7702	true	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 03:30:00.000000	M	15465.9258	1847.5195	7549.8584	1741.1379	15181.0078	9466.0723	4874.3169	1490.6588	57616.4974	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 03:30:00.000000	E3	15493.4004	1813.5	7584.1802	1825.79	15100.5996	9487.1299	4843.6802	1305.75	57454.0303	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 03:30:00.000000	E2	15574.2002	1758.1801	7432	1796.88	15023.2998	9453.25	4888.1201	1511.13	57437.0602	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 03:30:00.000000	E1	14808	1716.72	7837.4199	1697.1899	14515.5	9209.2197	4875.6899	1376.52	56036.2594	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 03:30:00.000000	E	16384	2140.8701	7762.1401	1838.61	16684.5996	10476.7998	4985.8301	1489.37	61762.2197	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 03:30:00.000000	A6	15070.0273	1808.328	7133.5527	1547.219	14581.0371	8703.9609	4778.2651	1770.524	55392.9141	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 03:30:00.000000	A3	14340.0166	1763.014	7038.7266	1590.8137	15218.0723	9095.918	4772.9048	1892.871	55712.337	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 02:30:00.000000	X	15432.7998	1923.76	7333.29	1634.33	16137.0996	10041	5055.8799	1909.4	59467.5593	true	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 02:30:00.000000	M	15465.5449	1847.4216	7549.4126	1741.3599	15181.0078	9466.1924	4874.3105	1490.9949	57616.2446	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 02:30:00.000000	E3	15492.9004	1813.48	7583.2598	1826.11	15100.5996	9487.2998	4843.75	1305.29	57452.6896	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 02:30:00.000000	E2	15573.7998	1757.92	7433.0098	1797.1801	15023.2998	9453.4404	4888.1602	1511.89	57438.7001	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 02:30:00.000000	E1	14807.5996	1716.5	7836.8398	1697.34	14515.5	9209.46	4875.6899	1378.5	56037.4293	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 02:30:00.000000	E	16383.4004	2140.8799	7760.3999	1838.95	16684.5996	10476.7998	4985.6499	1488.77	61759.4495	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 02:30:00.000000	A6	15070.0273	1808.328	7133.5527	1547.219	14581.0371	8703.9609	4778.3032	1770.524	55392.9522	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 02:30:00.000000	A3	14340.0166	1763.014	7038.7036	1590.8137	15218.0723	9095.918	4772.9048	1892.871	55712.314	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 01:30:00.000000	X	15444	1928.42	7304.5	1640.85	16128.5	10039.7998	5053.9102	1908.11	59448.09	true	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 01:30:00.000000	M	15396.1914	1835.184	7594.3398	1743.9869	15216.5059	9413.7295	4864.4873	1489.4507	57553.8755	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 01:30:00.000000	E3	15492.7998	1813.35	7581.6001	1826.9	15100.5996	9487.4404	4843.7998	1304.45	57450.9397	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 01:30:00.000000	E2	15241.2998	1709.15	7664.5098	1811.9301	15267.2998	9217.0498	4845	1509.21	57265.4493	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 01:30:00.000000	E1	14807.7002	1716.15	7835.7598	1696.64	14514.7998	9209.8896	4875.8398	1377.3	56034.0792	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 01:30:00.000000	E	16383.2002	2140.8799	7757.52	1839.61	16684.5996	10476.7002	4985.4702	1488.1801	61756.1602	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 01:30:00.000000	A6	15055.959	1796.3899	7132.312	1544.8544	14515.2314	8677.5684	4772.3271	1768.1133	55262.7555	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 01:30:00.000000	A3	14337.6533	1754.6802	7037.9463	1587.9053	15216.2539	9093.7363	4774.3994	1892.7084	55695.2831	false	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 04:12:16.810619
2026-10-02 05:00:00.000000	2026-09-25 03:30:00.000000	X	15455	1926.65	7332.3301	1635.51	16127.9004	10035.7998	5082.9199	1903.66	59499.7702	true	false	∅	∅	2026-09-25 03:42:42.988596

Coverage

100.0% complete0 gap days3,383 days with data

Show coverage history

Coverage: 100.0%Days with data: 3,383Gaps: 0

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Related load data

Related load data
Dataset	Description
Current Supply, Demand & Intraday ForecastERCOT · 5-minute	ERCOT's public real-time supply and demand dashboard at five-minute resolution. This is the preferred dataset for a current actual-versus-forecast demand comparison: series='realized' reports observed demand_mw and committed capacity_mw; series='intraday_forecast' reports demand_mw, capacity_mw, and available_mw for the same target event_time at successive source_time vintages; and series='forward_forecast' reports forecasted_demand_mw and avail_cap_gen_mw farther ahead. Operators, traders, and researchers use it to measure current forecast error, headroom, and how forecasts converge toward realized demand.
ERCOT Hourly Actual LoadERCOT · hourly	Actual hourly electricity demand in ERCOT, one row per hour with a system total and one column per weather zone. 119,475 hours, 2013-01 to now. Columns: system_mw plus coast_mw, east_mw, far_west_mw, north_mw, north_central_mw, south_central_mw, southern_mw, west_mw. system_mw is ERCOT's own published total, and the eight zones sum to it to within 0.03 MW — so a zone share is simply zone_mw / system_mw. Wide rather than long, so "load right now" and "the 8 weather zone shares of it" are one row, not 9. Every market's load table in this catalog shares the system_mw column and the same hourly grain, so a cross-market demand comparison needs no reshaping.
Hourly Historical System LoadERCOT · hourly	Hourly weather-zone actual-load history for ERCOT, including the eight weather zones and a system total. Use it for zonal and historical hourly analysis; for current system-wide demand and intraday forecast error, prefer Current Supply, Demand & Intraday Forecast (ercot_supply_demand). Analysts use this archive to study load shape and peaks, normalize demand against temperature, and contextualize price moves and reserve conditions. It comes from ERCOT report NP6-345-CD.
SCED Load Resource Data (60-Day)ERCOT · 5-minute (SCED), 60-day disclosure	Per-resource, per-interval telemetry for ERCOT's controllable Load Resources — large loads that curtail or provide ancillary services — from the 60-Day SCED Disclosure Reports. Each row is one SCED run (roughly every five minutes) for one load resource and its QSE, showing its real power consumption alongside its maximum and low consumption, its high and low dispatch limits (HDL, LDL), its SCED dispatch target (base point) and telemetered status, and its ancillary services. What ERCOT discloses about ancillary services changed with Real-Time Co-optimization plus Batteries (RTC+B) on 5 December 2025. Before it, each row carries the load's ancillary limits (HASL, LASL) and how much of each service it was responsible for (Reg-Up, Reg-Down, RRS, RRS-FFR, Non-Spin, ECRS). From it, those columns are empty and each row instead carries the load's ramp rates, its per-service ancillary capability, the ancillary services SCED awarded it in that interval (RRS by under-frequency relay, ECRS, Non-Spin and, rarely, RRS-PFR), and how much RRS and ECRS its QSE self-provided on it. Because Load Resources are how demand-side capacity participates in ERCOT's real-time market and reserves, this dataset shows demand response actually happening at five-minute resolution — how much load was armed for responsive reserve, when it was deployed, and how it followed dispatch. Like the gen file it is published on a 60-day regulatory delay, making it a historical record for studying demand-side flexibility, reserve provision, and load participation in scarcity events. The official source is ERCOT report NP3-965-ER, 60-Day SCED Disclosure Reports.