ERCOT Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF)

The forecast is broken out by ERCOT's eight weather zones plus a system-wide total, and a new vintage is issued every hour, so you can also see how the outlook for a given day shifts as it approaches. Operators use this to plan generation and reserves, while traders and researchers use it to anticipate price and tightness conditions and to study how forecasts evolve and where they miss. The official source is ERCOT report NP3-565-CD, Seven-Day Load Forecast by Weather Zone.

Query contract

For each target hour, select the row flagged in use from the latest source_time vintage that was actually available by the analysis cutoff. For forecast accuracy, source_time must be no later than event_time; keep both columns in the result so issue time and target time remain distinct.

Analysis rules

Do not sum forecast vintages.

Interpretation

system_total_mw is a forecast of gross system electricity demand, not net load and not the generation required after renewable output. Actual-minus-forecast is a gross-demand forecast error; a wind or solar generation shortfall does not by itself cause that error.Never evaluate a historical forecast with a source_time after its event_time. That is a hindsight vintage, not a forecast that operators could have used.

Plans

See available download and API access options. View pricing

MCP

Connect an MCP client and load the contract with describe_data before calling query_data.ERCOT MCPAPI reference

HTTP endpoint

POST /api/v1/datasets/ercot_load_forecast/query

Full history

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