ERCOT Solar Generation by Region

Alongside metered actuals, it carries the successive forecast vintages ERCOT publishes for each region, including the capacity-based high sustained limit (COP HSL) and the two physical solar production forecasts (STPPF and PVGRPP), so you can see what was expected versus what was delivered. For renewable curtailment analysis, a positive COP HSL minus actual_mw difference is an estimated available-output gap, not published curtailed MWh; compare the same hour, geography and publication vintage. This is the basis for tracking how solar output ramps through the day, how forecasts evolve as an operating hour approaches, and where regional solar buildout is concentrating across Texas. It comes from ERCOT report NP4-745-CD, Solar Power Production, Hourly Averaged Actual and Forecasted Values by Geographical Region.

Query contract

Choose one geography and one source_time vintage per event_time before comparing forecast and actual solar output. Use geography='system_wide' for an ERCOT-wide value.

Analysis rules

Do not sum regional rows together with geography='system_wide', and do not sum forecast vintages.

Interpretation

For curtailment screening, greatest(cop_hsl_mw - actual_mw, 0) is an estimated available-output gap in MW, not measured curtailed energy. Match a single vintage and geography, exclude future hours and null actuals, and do not treat forecast misses or offline capacity as confirmed curtailment.actual_mw, stppf_mw, and other solar fields measure generation output, not gross electricity demand. A solar forecast miss may change net load and dispatch needs, but it does not establish the cause or magnitude of an ERCOT gross-load forecast error.

Plans

See available download and API access options. View pricing

MCP

Connect an MCP client and load the contract with describe_data before calling query_data.ERCOT MCPAPI reference

HTTP endpoint

POST /api/v1/datasets/ercot_solar_generation_geo/query

Full history

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