Line Rating Weather Validation

Daily, leakage-safe validation of the forecast weather used by the modeled line-rating experiment.

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Native record

validation run x forecast lead x forecast source

daily validation run publication cadence

Evidence

Mixed evidence

Multiple evidence types kept distinct in the contract

Time basis

Point-in-time records

UTC · validation_end

Overview

Each run scores fixed forecast lead times against realized public station temperatures, records temperature and rating-error metrics, and declares whether a lead band passes the release gate. The table contains aggregate validation results only: it does not retain station rows, operator facility ratings, restricted records, or line-level benchmark data.

Query contract

Use one completed non-dry-run validation run and preserve its separate lead_hours rows. For release decisions, select the latest run available before the forecast materialization began.

Analysis rules

Do not pool lead-hour error metrics without weighting by sample_count and preserving the release decision for each lead band.
Treat meets_release_gate as a model-governance decision, not as proof that every line-hour estimate is accurate.

Related analysis

temperature guardband and weather release gate · Select the latest passing validation run by model_version and forecast lead before forecast_as_of.

Interpretation

Metrics are aggregate weather and modeled-rating errors; this table contains no line-level operator rating benchmark.
The validation gate controls whether a weather lead band may be used, not whether a physical facility has additional transfer capacity.

Access

Need the full history of this dataset in Snowflake, Databricks or your own storage? Data services delivers it on a schedule.

Schema25

Column

Type

run_timeDateTime64(6, 'UTC')

run_idString

model_versionLowCardinality(String)

validation_startDateTime64(6, 'UTC')

validation_endDateTime64(6, 'UTC')

lead_hoursInt32

forecast_sourceLowCardinality(String)

sample_countInt64

coverage_sample_countInt64

calibration_sample_countInt64

temperature_guardband_cNullable(Float64)

unadjusted_temperature_mae_cNullable(Float64)

temperature_mae_cNullable(Float64)

temperature_p95_absolute_error_cNullable(Float64)

temperature_bias_cNullable(Float64)

temperature_within_2c_fractionNullable(Float64)

rating_mae_pct_pointsNullable(Float64)

rating_p95_absolute_error_pct_pointsNullable(Float64)

rating_overstatement_above_5pt_fractionNullable(Float64)

benchmark_temperature_mae_cNullable(Float64)

temperature_mae_improvement_fractionNullable(Float64)

beats_ercot_temperature_maeNullable(Bool)

meets_release_gateNullable(Bool)

dry_runBool

ingested_atDateTime64(6, 'UTC')

Sample data

run_time	run_id	model_version	validation_start	validation_end	lead_hours	forecast_source	sample_count	coverage_sample_count	calibration_sample_count	temperature_guardband_c	unadjusted_temperature_mae_c	temperature_mae_c	temperature_p95_absolute_error_c	temperature_bias_c	temperature_within_2c_fraction	rating_mae_pct_points	rating_p95_absolute_error_pct_points	rating_overstatement_above_5pt_fraction	benchmark_temperature_mae_c	temperature_mae_improvement_fraction	beats_ercot_temperature_mae	meets_release_gate	dry_run	ingested_at
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	48	route_weather	656	1877	4717	1.55	2.727498843805561	1.9731108626698994	4.434841240776921	-0.7381780216041062	0.5533536585365854	0.1576352183529	1.223064097561699	0	2.455411585365854	0.19642357540806832	true	true	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	48	ercot_zone_weather	656	656	4717	∅	∅	2.455411585365854	5.888888888888889	1.7143038617886177	0.4969512195121951	0.40851618000189843	2.588947611899872	0	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	36	route_weather	3869	9553	27074	1	2.7767377463225253	2.081791649369766	4.680206298828102	-1.469264305633779	0.5275264926337555	0.10549296493268893	0.5623884253183942	0.0002584647195657793	1.958336923121105	-0.06304059571726024	false	false	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	36	ercot_zone_weather	3869	3869	27074	∅	∅	1.958336923121105	5.333333333333332	0.931327359926481	0.6187645386404755	0.2753662053831517	2.3971316916571173	0	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	24	route_weather	3869	9553	27074	0.83	2.263666360609201	1.8965470841051308	4.521251220703104	-0.9115392446256172	0.5942103902817265	0.10214906036387425	0.6766181295086326	0	1.9283478360759312	0.016491190736373014	true	true	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	24	ercot_zone_weather	3869	3869	27074	∅	∅	1.9283478360759312	5.1111111111111125	0.2900835702593261	0.6210907211165676	0.20085930619073836	1.8239763651915375	0.0005169294391315585	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	12	route_weather	3869	9553	27074	0.51	1.4483521757577407	1.3480243547258308	3.4068139648437743	-0.14344476157272312	0.7629878521581804	0.11422474184775852	0.821836717875013	0	1.912861491628615	0.2952838662782011	true	true	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	12	ercot_zone_weather	3869	3869	27074	∅	∅	1.912861491628615	5.111111111111112	0.24836305677608309	0.6298785215818041	0.19897937299011115	1.9510487382307762	0.0005169294391315585	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	6	route_weather	3869	9553	27074	0.34	1.1518309030680423	1.1317651581382853	2.9771453179253724	0.06128893506956791	0.8441457741018351	0.09602832674153937	0.5830197104601841	0	1.892758680106832	0.40205522762447155	true	true	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	6	ercot_zone_weather	3869	3869	27074	∅	∅	1.892758680106832	5	0.2383978059217136	0.6329800982165934	0.170744110177012	1.4071520788874414	0.0005169294391315585	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	1	route_weather	3869	9553	27074	0	0.8723695682865119	0.8723695682865119	2.2358630371093793	-0.11579375367950982	0.9286637373998449	0.06323863207183571	0.30912376065721453	0	1.894051003704661	0.5394160101390066	true	true	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-17 09:46:52.221607	bafaf61d-8658-4171-865d-1411feb283fb	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-17 06:00:00.000000	1	ercot_zone_weather	3869	3869	27074	∅	∅	1.894051003704661	5.111111111111111	0.3152336233881851	0.6322047040578961	0.170744110177012	1.4071520788874414	0.0005169294391315585	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-17 09:51:16.106131
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	48	route_weather	683	1563	4727	1.03	1.529963622768851	1.547612730851311	4.285676269531269	0.6559617758472358	0.7335285505124451	0.9581358905366929	3.7762582878077744	0.0029282576866764276	1.9282576866764276	0.19740357238310904	true	true	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	48	ercot_zone_weather	683	683	4727	∅	∅	1.9282576866764276	5.53333333333333	0.4853587115666178	0.6559297218155198	1.2016323359649623	4.163365493264433	0.007320644216691069	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	36	route_weather	3894	8898	27147	0.74	1.508905178723808	1.524437045477399	4.12999666341145	0.4767681949900657	0.7421674370826913	0.9282746376767373	3.1326702730335825	0.0035952747817154596	2.002803458311933	0.23884840564322077	true	true	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	36	ercot_zone_weather	3894	3894	27147	∅	∅	2.002803458311933	5.870833333333329	0.332413114192775	0.6402157164869029	1.1160289572810942	3.8878834701430685	0.009758602978941962	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	24	route_weather	3894	8898	27147	0.82	1.4427349459571839	1.4370760745977207	3.7659524197048375	0.462271960702118	0.7516692347200822	0.9043987742192093	3.14026098449263	0.004879301489470981	2.0376647834274952	0.29474362697653445	true	true	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	24	ercot_zone_weather	3894	3894	27147	∅	∅	2.0376647834274952	5.908333333333328	0.293442903612395	0.6237801746276322	1.1359063426022955	4.072488317229284	0.01386748844375963	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	12	route_weather	3894	8898	27147	0.67	1.2410069866253348	1.350270028650133	3.560242343478758	0.6788909687098428	0.7829994863893169	0.8229026831733395	2.8453019692117554	0.0025680534155110425	2.0392127489585117	0.3378473975607708	true	true	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	12	ercot_zone_weather	3894	3894	27147	∅	∅	2.0392127489585117	5.833333333333332	0.2913385265080178	0.6070878274268104	1.1647376107090006	4.169928938281298	0.014637904468412942	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	6	route_weather	3894	8898	27147	0.31	1.1581702500290922	1.2032210039155065	3.220709804958789	0.4725483686981478	0.8261427837699025	0.7532695534109533	2.710785519374713	0.0017976373908577298	1.9502439650744736	0.38304077568594896	true	true	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	6	ercot_zone_weather	3894	3894	27147	∅	∅	1.9502439650744736	5.7875000000000005	0.4045183473149572	0.635593220338983	1.0635619967925773	3.853968360040569	0.01078582434514638	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	1	route_weather	3894	8898	27147	0	0.9275043261362069	0.9275043261362069	2.5385601806640694	0.000924171465627679	0.9001027221366205	0.6050388677401585	2.33510922328867	0.001027221366204417	1.9355347257889632	0.5208020224188242	true	true	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-16 09:46:53.528832	8a73f437-e1d3-4683-a93f-9819d7bcbdfc	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-16 06:00:00.000000	1	ercot_zone_weather	3894	3894	27147	∅	∅	1.9355347257889632	5.805555555555557	0.48094647035324983	0.6445814072932717	1.0645274609382462	3.848562113237386	0.011042629686697484	∅	∅	∅	∅	false	2026-10-16 09:51:17.329846
2026-10-15 09:46:50.487393	67ec9cab-bf6e-4cd4-816a-a3ce2a59cbf5	ieee738-hrrr-v3	2026-10-14 06:00:00.000000	2026-10-15 06:00:00.000000	48	route_weather	687	1952	4659	0.67	1.6261447561610307	1.2584028370064495	3.517936740451365	-0.5854673679974081	0.826783114992722	1.2226622539362682	3.2417513983382205	0.013100436681222707	1.504528546013262	0.1635899230087742	true	false	false	2026-10-15 09:51:27.738882

Coverage

100.0% complete0 gap days48 days with data

Show coverage history

Coverage: 100.0%Days with data: 48Gaps: 0

2026

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