Constraint Shift Factor Runs

One row per COMPLETED nightly estimation of MISO constraint shift factors, and the only record that a run finished.

Congestion & Constraints data

Download data

Native record

one completed estimation run

nightly (one row per completed run) publication cadence

Evidence

Reference data

Stable context used to interpret other datasets

Time basis

Point-in-time records

UTC · computed_at

Overview

Resolve the latest usable run here — computed_at = (SELECT max(computed_at) FROM atg.miso_constraint_sensitivity_runs) — and never off max(computed_at) of the sensitivities themselves, because a run writes its rows in blocks that all carry the new timestamp and an unfinished or abandoned run would otherwise look like the newest one. Each row also carries how much evidence that run had: interval_coverage is the fraction of published dispatch intervals that survived admission, intervals_refused_unexplained counts intervals showing congestion with no constraint recorded as binding (an unobserved binding set), constraint_feed_lag_minutes is how far the constraint feed trailed the price feed, and constraints_seen / constraints_in_fit / constraints_reported show how many constraints bound, how many were good enough to control for, and how many earned a published estimate.

Query contract

The newest row is the newest COMPLETE run: computed_at = (SELECT max(computed_at) FROM atg.miso_constraint_sensitivity_runs). Use that value to filter atg.miso_constraint_sensitivities.

Analysis rules

One row per run. Counting rows counts runs, not constraints, nodes or intervals — those are columns on each row.

Interpretation

A run appears here only after every one of its node blocks has landed. That is the point of the table: rows go into the sensitivities table block by block, all carrying the new computed_at, so a run still being written — or one that died halfway — would otherwise look like the newest. Absence of a row means the run did not finish, not that it did not happen.
This is provenance about an estimation job. Nothing in it measures the grid: it says how much evidence a run had, not what congestion occurred.

Schema18

Column

Type

computed_atDateTime64(3, 'UTC')

run_idString

isoLowCardinality(String)

window_startDateTime64(3, 'UTC')

window_endDateTime64(3, 'UTC')

rows_writtenUInt64

rows_estimatedUInt64

constraints_seenUInt32

constraints_in_fitUInt32

constraints_reportedUInt32

nodesUInt32

n_intervalsUInt32

intervals_publishedUInt32

intervals_refused_thinUInt32

intervals_refused_unexplainedUInt32

interval_coverageFloat32

constraint_feed_lag_minutesFloat32

method_versionLowCardinality(String)

Sample data

No preview available.

Coverage

No time-indexed data — coverage isn’t applicable to this dataset.

Related congestion & constraints data

Related congestion & constraints data
Dataset	Description
Constraint Shift Factors (Estimated)MISO · nightly (60-day rolling estimation window)	Estimated sensitivity of every MISO pricing location's price to every binding transmission constraint: one row per constraint, contingency, and location, recomputed nightly over a rolling 60-day window. This is what answers 'which nodes drive this constraint' and 'which constraints is this node exposed to'. Covers MISO's binding real-time constraints over its hub and zone roll-up of roughly 325 pricing locations, so the answers are coarser than a full nodal set. MISO publishes no contingency or terminal names, so contingency_name, from_station and to_station are always empty. shift_factor is in the ISO's orientation — POSITIVE means an incremental MW injected at that node increases loading on the constraint and the node is paid below system lambda while it binds; NEGATIVE means generation there relieves the constraint and earns a premium. These are ESTIMATES recovered from the price identity LMP = energy - sum(shift_factor x shadow_price), not a published PTDF matrix. They are measured RELATIVE TO THE MARKET'S REFERENCE — the identity yields SF(node) - SF(reference), so a single absolute value should be quoted as 'relative to the system reference' rather than as the node's PTDF, while DIFFERENCES between nodes are exact because the reference term cancels. Three further differences from a published matrix: they describe a NODE (a generator at that node inherits its location's value, and two units at one node are indistinguishable), they reflect the topology actually in effect across the window including outages rather than a stated base case, and every one carries a std_error from a 200-draw block bootstrap that resamples whole days. Read std_error before quoting shift_factor: an estimate whose absolute value is not at least twice its standard error is not distinguishable from zero. estimation_status says why a row has no number — 'thin_support' (in the fit, so it is controlled for, but under 12 binding intervals or under 3 distinct binding days), 'no_support' (under 3 binding intervals; not a regressor), or 'collinear' (it bound in lockstep with another constraint, so the two cannot be separated). Where from_station and to_station are populated they identify the monitored element and are NOT the constrained direction — the sign of shift_factor is what says which way. Every read must pin computed_at to one run, and must resolve that run through the companion atg.<iso>_constraint_sensitivity_runs ledger rather than off max(computed_at) here — rows are written in blocks that all carry the new timestamp, so an unfinished or abandoned run would otherwise look like the newest. Mixing runs averages a node across different network topologies.
Hourly Binding Constraint CountMISO · hourly	MISO's hourly count of real-time binding transmission constraints. It supports system-level congestion frequency analysis, but does not name a facility, contingency, or shadow price and therefore cannot attribute congestion to a specific constraint.
Live Binding ConstraintsMISO · 1-minute snapshots	Current MISO real-time, sub-regional, and reserve constraints with shadow price and penalty-curve breakpoints. A non-zero price is direct constraint evidence; the feed does not always supply a resolvable monitored facility or contingency.
Available & Total Transfer CapabilityNYISO · hourly / 15-minute market-run timesteps	NYISO available transfer capability and total transfer capability by interface and market run. The source rows are melted so DAM and HAM timesteps can be compared by interface over time.