Live market data
ERCOT outage forecast
ERCOT's published schedule of generation on planned outage — the supply side of every tight hour, known in advance.
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ERCOT's published schedule of generation on planned outage — the supply side of every tight hour, known in advance.
How much Texas generation is scheduled off this week?
ERCOT planned outages peaks at 10,280 MW on Mon, 7 AM, against a low of 4,901 MW — a swing of 5,379 MW across the window. Planned outage capacity is the heaviest area at 10,280 MW.
Every line above, and who produced it.
The grid operator's own published forecast for these hours. Source: ERCOT.
Each day of the window on its own.
Every hour of the window, shaded by load.
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 8/28 |
| Series | Peak (MW) | Peak hour | Low (MW) | Average (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planned outage capacity | 10,280 | Mon, 7 AM | 4,901 | 7,641 |
| Forecast | Produced by | Method | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planned outage capacity | ERCOT | ERCOT planned resource outage capacity | 7 days ahead, hourly |
This is a schedule rather than a forecast, so its uncertainty is of a different kind: outages get rescheduled, extended, and cancelled, and forced outages arrive with no notice at all and never appear here.
Generating capacity that ERCOT expects to be unavailable because it is scheduled off for maintenance. This is a published schedule rather than a prediction: units submit planned outages in advance, and this is the total the market expects to be missing at each point in the window.
Capacity on planned maintenance is capacity that cannot answer a scarcity hour. ERCOT schedules most of it into the shoulder seasons — spring and autumn, when demand is mild — which is exactly why an unseasonable heat wave in those months is more dangerous than a hotter day in August.
Compare the heaviest day here against the demand forecast for the same day. A large outage block landing under a high forecast peak is the setup worth knowing about a week early.
Forced outages. A unit that trips has not scheduled anything, so it cannot appear here — and forced outages are precisely what turns a comfortable planned margin into a scarcity event. Read this as the floor under how much capacity is missing, never the total.
curl "https://askthegrid.com/api/v1/grid/radar/curves?iso=ERCOT&horizon=extended"
Connect your agent to mcp.askthegrid.com and this forecast is a tool call away — the same host Claude and ChatGPT connectors already use.
A generating unit taken offline deliberately for maintenance, refuelling, or repair, scheduled with the grid operator in advance. Operators concentrate them in low-demand seasons so the capacity is missing when it is least likely to be needed.
No. This is the planned maintenance schedule — units taken off deliberately, submitted in advance. Forced outages are by definition not in it, and they are what turns a comfortable margin into a tight one.
Capacity that is out cannot bid. Removing a large block of it from the supply stack means the market clears further up that stack for the same demand, so a heavy outage day and a high demand day landing together is the classic setup for a price spike.
Plotted window Aug 28, 3:00 AM CDT → Sep 4, 2:00 AM CDT. Republished by ERCOT as the schedule changes; the latest is shown.
| Sat, 8/29 |
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| Sun, 8/30 |
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| Mon, 8/31 |
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| Tue, 9/1 |
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| Wed, 9/2 |
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| Thu, 9/3 |
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| Fri, 9/4 |
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Darkest cells are the tightest hours. The window peaks at 10,280 MW on Mon, 7 AM, local to the market.