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PJM wind forecast
PJM's published wind forecast against what the fleet actually metered, spanning yesterday and the day ahead — re-evaluated every ten minutes, and scored against delivery.
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PJM's published wind forecast against what the fleet actually metered, spanning yesterday and the day ahead — re-evaluated every ten minutes, and scored against delivery.
How much wind power will PJM get?
PJM wind output peaks at 1,966 MW on Sat, 3 AM, against a low of 128 MW — a swing of 1,838 MW across the window. Wind forecast is the heaviest area at 1,966 MW.
Every line above, and who produced it.
What settled — the realized values every forecast here is scored against.
The grid operator's own published forecast for these hours. Source: PJM.
Every settled hour scored against what each forecast said beforehand.
The window peaked at 1,044 MW on Thu, 9 PM; PJM wind forecast called it 913 MW — 131 MW low.
Each day of the window on its own.
Every hour of the window, shaded by load.
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 8/27 |
| Series | Peak (MW) | Peak hour | Low (MW) | Average (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind forecast | 1,966 | Sat, 3 AM | 128 | 696 |
| Wind settled (recent) | 1,476 | Thu, 5 AM | 261 | 809 |
| Forecast | Avg miss (MW) | Avg miss % | Bias | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJM wind forecast | 144 | 25.6% | +37 | 16 |
The latest published vintage of each forecast, against what settled. Smaller is better on every column. Bias is signed: positive means the forecast ran high.
| Forecast | Produced by | Method | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wind forecast | PJM | PJM Data Miner 2 — Hourly Wind Power Forecast, against metered wind output from Generation by Fuel Type | About 46 hours ahead, hourly |
PJM publishes a point forecast with no confidence interval, and no per-zone breakout — this is an RTO-wide number. Frontal timing and winter icing are the dominant error sources. PJM retains only 30 days of vintages, so the forecast record here does not run deeper than that.
PJM publishes an hourly wind power forecast for the whole RTO and re-evaluates it every ten minutes, roughly forty-six hours forward. This page plots the most recent vintage against metered wind output from PJM's own generation-by-fuel feed, so the forecast's track record over the settled hours sits next to its call for the coming ones.
PJM wind is strongly seasonal and out of phase with the market's demand peak. Averaged across 2023 to 2026, RTO wind delivers about 5,290 MW through March and about 1,490 MW through July — a three-and-a-half-fold swing — while individual hours have reached roughly 10,000 MW in November. The consequence is that wind is at its least helpful precisely when PJM is at its tightest.
The scorecard below measures the forecast against metered output over overlapping hours. PJM's wind errors cluster around frontal timing: a front arriving two hours early or late moves gigawatts through the western zones, and that is where the ComEd and AEP hub spreads move with it.
curl "https://askthegrid.com/api/v1/grid/radar/curves?iso=PJM&horizon=extended"
Connect your agent to mcp.askthegrid.com and this forecast is a tool call away — the same host Claude and ChatGPT connectors already use.
About forty-six hours, hourly, for the RTO as a whole. PJM re-evaluates the forecast every ten minutes, so the call for a given hour keeps moving right up until that hour arrives.
Late winter and early spring. Across 2023 to 2026 the RTO fleet averaged roughly 5,290 MW through March against roughly 1,490 MW through July, and the highest hours — near 10,000 MW — land in November and December.
Because it is concentrated in the west of the footprint, so its swings load the west-to-east transmission rather than serving load where the load is. An unforecast lull pulls higher-priced thermal units on; a surge pushes the western hubs down and prices them apart from the Mid-Atlantic.
Plotted window Aug 27, 11:00 AM EDT → Aug 29, 3:00 AM EDT. Re-evaluated every 10 minutes; the latest vintage available is shown.
| Fri, 8/28 |
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| Sat, 8/29 |
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Darkest cells are the tightest hours. The window peaks at 1,966 MW on Sat, 3 AM, local to the market.