Constraint Shift Factor Runs

One row per COMPLETED nightly estimation of ERCOT constraint shift factors, and the only record that a run finished.

Congestion & Constraints data ERCOT market

Query with the agent

Native record

one completed estimation run

nightly (one row per completed run) publication cadence

Evidence

Reference data

Stable context used to interpret other datasets

Time basis

Point-in-time records

UTC · computed_at

Overview

Resolve the latest usable run here — computed_at = (SELECT max(computed_at) FROM atg.ercot_constraint_sensitivity_runs) — and never off max(computed_at) of the sensitivities themselves, because a run writes its rows in blocks that all carry the new timestamp and an unfinished or abandoned run would otherwise look like the newest one. Each row also carries how much evidence that run had: interval_coverage is the fraction of published dispatch intervals that survived admission, intervals_refused_unexplained counts intervals showing congestion with no constraint recorded as binding (an unobserved binding set), constraint_feed_lag_minutes is how far the constraint feed trailed the price feed, and constraints_seen / constraints_in_fit / constraints_reported show how many constraints bound, how many were good enough to control for, and how many earned a published estimate.

Query contract

The newest row is the newest COMPLETE run: computed_at = (SELECT max(computed_at) FROM atg.ercot_constraint_sensitivity_runs). Use that value to filter atg.ercot_constraint_sensitivities.

Analysis rules

One row per run. Counting rows counts runs, not constraints, nodes or intervals — those are columns on each row.

Interpretation

A run appears here only after every one of its node blocks has landed. That is the point of the table: rows go into the sensitivities table block by block, all carrying the new computed_at, so a run still being written — or one that died halfway — would otherwise look like the newest. Absence of a row means the run did not finish, not that it did not happen.
This is provenance about an estimation job. Nothing in it measures the grid: it says how much evidence a run had, not what congestion occurred.

Access

Query from your own tools

Use the guarded HTTP endpoint directly, or connect an MCP client and load the dataset contract with describe_data before calling query_data.

ERCOT MCP API reference

HTTP endpoint

POST /api/v1/datasets/ercot_constraint_sensitivity_runs/query

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Schema18

Column

Type

computed_atDateTime64(3, 'UTC')

run_idString

isoLowCardinality(String)

window_startDateTime64(3, 'UTC')

window_endDateTime64(3, 'UTC')

rows_writtenUInt64

rows_estimatedUInt64

constraints_seenUInt32

constraints_in_fitUInt32

constraints_reportedUInt32

nodesUInt32

n_intervalsUInt32

intervals_publishedUInt32

intervals_refused_thinUInt32

intervals_refused_unexplainedUInt32

interval_coverageFloat32

constraint_feed_lag_minutesFloat32

method_versionLowCardinality(String)

Sample data

computed_at	run_id	iso	window_start	window_end	rows_written	rows_estimated	constraints_seen	constraints_in_fit	constraints_reported	nodes	n_intervals	intervals_published	intervals_refused_unexplained	interval_coverage	constraint_feed_lag_minutes	method_version
2026-10-22 08:41:48.991	59466cf3-7402-42e6-9551-0871ed5a064d	ERCOT	2026-08-23 08:41:48.000	2026-10-22 08:41:48.000	497511	217035	447	385	195	1113	14434	15650	75	0.99520767	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-21 08:41:48.573	7fd384af-81d5-460b-89e2-983686486979	ERCOT	2026-08-22 08:41:48.000	2026-10-21 08:41:48.000	494840	220176	445	388	198	1112	14614	15657	75	0.9952098	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-20 08:41:45.677	77530aeb-a015-4e5a-b4ec-8680f9e05ba0	ERCOT	2026-08-21 08:41:45.000	2026-10-20 08:41:45.000	491504	219064	442	382	197	1112	14614	15658	73	0.99533784	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-19 08:41:49.890	fbb86be2-e2c3-4b33-b9bf-55755950e11d	ERCOT	2026-08-20 08:41:49.000	2026-10-19 08:41:49.000	495952	217952	446	384	196	1112	14552	15656	74	0.99527335	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-18 08:41:47.234	be7c27aa-9703-42cf-aa10-a71be2353091	ERCOT	2026-08-19 08:41:47.000	2026-10-18 08:41:47.000	498176	216840	448	386	195	1112	14525	15655	75	0.9952092	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-17 08:41:49.158	14e60beb-b47c-45f2-8db0-74ea2f751c7f	ERCOT	2026-08-18 08:41:49.000	2026-10-17 08:41:49.000	494840	216840	445	385	195	1112	14467	15643	74	0.9952695	30	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-16 08:41:48.800	37b8df3e-1c74-41d5-9855-4adc5f7c1c82	ERCOT	2026-08-17 08:41:48.000	2026-10-16 08:41:48.000	484832	219064	436	376	197	1112	14399	15592	75	0.99518985	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-15 08:41:48.954	663052d6-2a2d-4505-b086-47af1e752611	ERCOT	2026-08-16 08:41:48.000	2026-10-15 08:41:48.000	478160	215728	430	371	194	1112	14359	15592	74	0.995254	30	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-14 08:41:48.495	e9e9eca2-fbea-40d8-8b05-de7ba2676027	ERCOT	2026-08-15 08:41:48.000	2026-10-14 08:41:48.000	479952	209979	432	373	189	1111	14462	15595	69	0.9955755	30	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-13 08:41:48.748	573cbfd1-4dd2-45cd-84fa-509048f6fd5a	ERCOT	2026-08-14 08:41:48.000	2026-10-13 08:41:48.000	472175	208868	425	364	188	1111	14349	15591	72	0.99538195	30	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-12 08:41:48.937	2d68af3f-b02f-428f-94c1-8dae99122114	ERCOT	2026-08-13 08:41:48.000	2026-10-12 08:41:48.000	464671	207383	419	355	187	1109	14509	15587	73	0.9953166	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-11 08:41:50.302	4122b557-4098-476a-bce1-1b55e21c1e14	ERCOT	2026-08-12 08:41:50.000	2026-10-11 08:41:50.000	464671	206274	419	346	186	1109	14394	15588	73	0.9953169	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-10 08:41:50.368	b23b2b79-cecf-41fb-933c-c9af57b7a6e5	ERCOT	2026-08-11 08:41:50.000	2026-10-10 08:41:50.000	462453	205165	417	346	185	1109	14299	15583	73	0.99531543	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-09 08:41:48.323	cdffe6d6-bdf3-4b8e-a585-c089851890c6	ERCOT	2026-08-10 08:41:48.000	2026-10-09 08:41:48.000	458017	206274	413	342	186	1109	14273	15579	72	0.9953784	30	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-08 08:41:45.294	1b3302ef-2122-4700-8313-b9db6f893290	ERCOT	2026-08-09 08:41:45.000	2026-10-08 08:41:45.000	456908	199620	412	340	180	1109	14204	15577	73	0.9953136	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-07 08:42:13.071	08b220cf-2a35-487e-9212-746d1a7a36ef	ERCOT	2026-08-08 08:42:13.000	2026-10-07 08:42:13.000	453581	194075	409	337	175	1109	14180	15578	63	0.9959558	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-06 08:41:54.111	e37bee63-7649-477c-abd2-5bc99a78b893	ERCOT	2026-08-07 08:41:54.000	2026-10-06 08:41:54.000	446927	189639	403	331	171	1109	14203	15610	40	0.99743754	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-05 08:41:49.076	14af6a39-d142-4320-a5a5-167d0d0e9974	ERCOT	2026-08-06 08:41:49.000	2026-10-05 08:41:49.000	435837	189639	393	320	171	1109	14257	15639	6	0.9996163	30	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-04 08:41:45.202	1eba28bf-b18b-4142-be6b-67aed1cdc683	ERCOT	2026-08-05 08:41:45.000	2026-10-04 08:41:45.000	438055	188530	395	320	170	1109	14207	15647	7	0.9995526	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-03 08:41:50.784	1c829c32-9b5f-48a6-b9ad-0ca6d43587f2	ERCOT	2026-08-04 08:41:50.000	2026-10-03 08:41:50.000	442491	187421	399	319	169	1109	13943	15648	7	0.99955267	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-02 08:41:49.475	af7b7d96-be01-47ef-920b-3a0845a12e5f	ERCOT	2026-08-03 08:41:49.000	2026-10-02 08:41:49.000	442000	185640	400	320	168	1105	14035	15643	7	0.9995525	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-10-01 08:41:49.133	f06fbc4c-fbf4-458a-ac4e-c1fe413952b1	ERCOT	2026-08-02 08:41:49.000	2026-10-01 08:41:49.000	438685	185640	397	318	168	1105	14013	15637	19	0.99878496	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-09-30 08:41:49.572	f876a943-39e3-49c7-8272-58872d08918c	ERCOT	2026-08-01 08:41:49.000	2026-09-30 08:41:49.000	426530	181220	386	306	164	1105	13981	15628	19	0.99878424	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-09-29 08:41:50.658	a6193152-f2ef-4ad0-a4ea-14fb83471120	ERCOT	2026-07-31 08:41:50.000	2026-09-29 08:41:50.000	411060	183430	372	294	166	1105	13933	15617	17	0.99891144	35	ols-blockboot-v2
2026-09-28 08:41:50.355	7a22eded-2655-4d05-94b3-271dd81f3bed	ERCOT	2026-07-30 08:41:50.000	2026-09-28 08:41:50.000	405904	186407	368	298	169	1103	14018	15593	19	0.9987815	35	ols-blockboot-v2

Coverage

100.0% complete0 gap days45 days with data

Show coverage history

Coverage: 100.0%Days with data: 45Gaps: 0

2026

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Related congestion & constraints data

Related congestion & constraints data
Dataset	Description
Constraint Shift Factors (Estimated)ERCOT · nightly (60-day rolling estimation window)	Estimated sensitivity of every ERCOT pricing location's price to every binding transmission constraint: one row per constraint, contingency, and location, recomputed nightly over a rolling 60-day window. This is what answers 'which nodes drive this constraint' and 'which constraints is this node exposed to'. Covers ERCOT's transmission constraints with their contingency and both named terminals, over 1,123 settlement points. shift_factor is in the ISO's orientation — POSITIVE means an incremental MW injected at that node increases loading on the constraint and the node is paid below system lambda while it binds; NEGATIVE means generation there relieves the constraint and earns a premium. These are ESTIMATES recovered from the price identity LMP = energy - sum(shift_factor x shadow_price), not a published PTDF matrix. They are measured RELATIVE TO THE MARKET'S REFERENCE — the identity yields SF(node) - SF(reference), so a single absolute value should be quoted as 'relative to the system reference' rather than as the node's PTDF, while DIFFERENCES between nodes are exact because the reference term cancels. Three further differences from a published matrix: they describe a NODE (a generator at that node inherits its location's value, and two units at one node are indistinguishable), they reflect the topology actually in effect across the window including outages rather than a stated base case, and every one carries a std_error from a 200-draw block bootstrap that resamples whole days. Read std_error before quoting shift_factor: an estimate whose absolute value is not at least twice its standard error is not distinguishable from zero. estimation_status says why a row has no number — 'thin_support' (in the fit, so it is controlled for, but under 12 binding intervals or under 3 distinct binding days), 'no_support' (under 3 binding intervals; not a regressor), or 'collinear' (it bound in lockstep with another constraint, so the two cannot be separated). Where from_station and to_station are populated they identify the monitored element and are NOT the constrained direction — the sign of shift_factor is what says which way. Every read must pin computed_at to one run, and must resolve that run through the companion atg.<iso>_constraint_sensitivity_runs ledger rather than off max(computed_at) here — rows are written in blocks that all carry the new timestamp, so an unfinished or abandoned run would otherwise look like the newest. Mixing runs averages a node across different network topologies.
CRR Monthly Auction ResultsERCOT · monthly auction posting	Cleared ERCOT monthly Congestion Revenue Right auction awards, one row per source-to-sink CRR and time-of-use block, including awarded MW and the auction shadow price per MWh. This is public auction evidence for who acquired a path and at what clearing price. It does not contain realized day-ahead congestion settlements, fees, later trades, the holder's full portfolio, or net profit, so auction cost must not be described as payout or profitability. The official source is ERCOT report NP7-803-M.
Day-Ahead Shadow Prices & Binding ConstraintsERCOT · hourly (DAM)	Binding transmission constraint and contingency pairs from ERCOT's Day-Ahead Market solution, one row per constraint, contingency, and delivery hour, including the limiting facility, its from and to stations, the constraint limit, flow, and violation in MW, and the shadow price. A row establishes that the named constraint bound in the cleared day-ahead solution for that hour and its marginal system cost. It does not, by itself, identify which settlement point or hub the constraint affected, or establish that the constraint bound in real time; the first requires shift-factor or direct attribution evidence, and real-time binding is recorded in the SCED shadow prices. The official source is ERCOT report NP4-191-CD.
ERCOT Day-Ahead Binding ConstraintsERCOT · hourly (DAM)	Which transmission facilities bound in ERCOT's day-ahead market and what each one cost, one row per interval and constraint. 2.94M rows, 2017-01 to the next delivery day. Columns: event_time, constraint_name, shadow_price_usd_mwh, plus contingency, from_station and to_station, limit_mw and flow_mw. The shadow price is the marginal cost of the binding limit — what the market would have saved from one more megawatt of capability on that element. This is the table that answers WHY congestion appeared; a price spread between two locations shows that they separated but not which facility separated them.