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How much power will New York need?
NYISO's own hourly load forecast for the New York Control Area, plotted against settled demand, with the track record for each forecast published.
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NYISO's own hourly load forecast for the New York Control Area, plotted against settled demand, with the track record for each forecast published.
ERCOT demand peaks at 26,651 MW on Mon 4 PM, against a low of 14,133 MW — a swing of 12,518 MW across the window. N.Y.C. is the heaviest zone at 9,586 MW, 36% of the system peak.
Every line above, and who produced it.
What settled — the realized values every forecast here is scored against.
The grid operator's own published forecast for these hours. Source: NYISO.
Every settled hour scored against what each forecast said beforehand.
The window peaked at 25,813 MW on Mon 4 PM; ERCOT MTLF (day-ahead) called it 26,651 MW — 838 MW high.
The same week, split across ERCOT’s eight weather zones.
Every hour of the window, shaded by load.
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 8/9 |
| Zone | Peak (MW) | Peak hour | Low (MW) | Average (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Y.C. | 9,586 | Tue 3 PM | 4,907 | 7,015 |
| LONGIL | 4,645 | Tue 4 PM | 1,860 | 2,991 |
| WEST | 2,184 | Wed 5 PM | 1,448 | 1,757 |
| CENTRL | 2,074 | Wed 6 PM | 1,006 | 1,537 |
| CAPITL | 1,789 | Tue 6 PM | 882 |
| Forecast | Avg miss (MW) | Avg miss % | Bias | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERCOT MTLF (day-ahead) | 721 | 3.2% | +721 | 24 |
Each forecast as it stood 24 hours before the hour it predicted, against what settled. Smaller is better on every column. Bias is signed: positive means the forecast ran high.
| Forecast | Produced by | Method | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast demand | NYISO | NYISO load forecast | Forward across NYISO's published forecast window, hourly |
NYISO publishes the load forecast as a point forecast with no confidence interval. Actual demand routinely differs from it, most on days with unusual weather.
NYISO publishes an hourly forecast of demand across the New York Control Area. This page plots the forward forecast alongside what actually settled, so the two are directly comparable on one axis.
NYISO is a winter-and-summer peaking system with a hard geographic split: most demand sits downstate in New York City and Long Island, while much of the cheap generation sits upstate. The transmission between them is the constraint that shapes both prices and reliability planning.
Summer peaks land in the late afternoon on humid days, driven by air conditioning downstate. Winter peaks are early-morning and evening. The gap between the daily peak and the overnight minimum is the ramp the dispatchable fleet has to deliver.
curl "https://askthegrid.com/api/v1/grid/series?iso=ERCOT&metric=load_forecast&zone=SYSTEM&hours=168"
Connect your agent to mcp.askthegrid.com and this forecast is a tool call away — the same host Claude and ChatGPT connectors already use.
It is NYISO's hourly projection of electricity demand across the New York Control Area, used to plan generation commitments and assess reliability.
Summer peaks fall in the late afternoon on hot, humid days, driven by air conditioning in New York City and on Long Island. Winter brings a second peak shape, early morning and again in the evening.
Most demand is downstate while much of the cheaper generation is upstate, and the transmission between them is limited. That constraint is why downstate prices are usually higher and why reliability planning focuses there.
The scorecard on this page measures it against what settled, over the same hours, with the vintage pinned so the forecast gets no credit for information it did not have at the time.
Plotted window Aug 9, 11:00 PM CDT → Aug 16, 10:00 PM CDT. Republished on a rolling basis; the latest vintage for each hour is shown.
| Mon, 8/10 |
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| Tue, 8/11 |
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| Wed, 8/12 |
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| Thu, 8/13 |
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| Fri, 8/14 |
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| Sat, 8/15 |
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| Sun, 8/16 |
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Darkest cells are the tightest hours. The week peaks at 26,651 MW on Mon 4 PM, and the daily band across the late afternoon and early evening is the solar ramp-down meeting air-conditioning load.
| 1,300 |
| HUD VL | 1,756 | Tue 5 PM | 797 | 1,154 |
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| GENESE | 1,455 | Tue 6 PM | 779 | 1,076 |
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| DUNWOD | 1,144 | Tue 4 PM | 516 | 770 |
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| MHK VL | 1,023 | Tue 7 PM | 373 | 689 |
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| NORTH | 637 | Wed 7 PM | 533 | 577 |
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| MILLWD | 494 | Tue 4 PM | 214 | 326 |
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