Live market data
MISO solar forecast
MISO's published solar forecast against actual output, spanning yesterday and the day ahead — the fleet rewriting the market's afternoon supply curve.
Fetching the latest published forecast…
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MISO's published solar forecast against actual output, spanning yesterday and the day ahead — the fleet rewriting the market's afternoon supply curve.
How much solar power will MISO get?
MISO solar output peaks at 16,423 MW on Sun, 2 PM, against a low of 0 MW — a swing of 16,423 MW across the window. Solar forecast is the heaviest area at 16,423 MW.
Every line above, and who produced it.
Observed or settled values for the plotted intervals. Source: MISO.
A published forecast for the plotted target intervals. Source: MISO.
Each day of the window on its own.
Every hour of the window, shaded by load.
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 10/11 |
| Series | Peak (MW) | Peak hour | Low (MW) | Average (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar forecast | 16,423 | Sun, 2 PM | 0 | 5,980 |
| Solar settled (recent) | 16,865 | Sun, 2 PM | -53 | 6,142 |
| Forecast | Avg miss (MW) | Avg miss % | Bias | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISO solar forecast | 261 | 56.3% | −37 | 23 |
The latest published vintage of each forecast, against what settled. Smaller is better on every column. Bias is signed: positive means the forecast ran high.
| Series | Produced by | Method | Horizon | Issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar forecast | MISO | MISO solar forecast and actual solar output, hourly | Roughly the day ahead, hourly | Issue time not exposed by this feed |
MISO publishes a point forecast with no confidence interval. Convective cloud cover is the dominant error source — summer storm days can halve output against a clear-sky forecast.
MISO publishes an hourly solar forecast alongside actual output, spanning the recent past and roughly the day ahead. This page plots both, with the recent hours scored against what actually delivered.
MISO's utility-scale solar fleet has multiplied within five years and continues to grow off the largest interconnection-queue backlog in its history, concentrated in Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and the South. Midwestern summer afternoons increasingly clear against solar rather than coal — a structural change in how the market prices.
The scorecard below sizes forecast against delivery over the settled window. Midwestern convective weather — pop-up summer storms — makes solar forecasting here genuinely harder than in the desert Southwest, and the error numbers show it honestly.
curl "https://askthegrid.com/api/v1/grid/radar/curves?iso=MISO&horizon=extended"
Connect your agent to mcp.askthegrid.com and this forecast is a tool call away — the same host Claude and ChatGPT connectors already use.
The fleet has grown from around a gigawatt in 2020 to well over ten, with the market's interconnection queue dominated by more. Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and the southern zones carry most of it.
Clear days verify almost exactly; convective summer days are the hard case, when pop-up storms can take large blocks of the fleet offline against a sunny forecast. The scorecard above shows the recent record in numbers.
Yes — summer afternoon prices increasingly form around solar output rather than coal and gas alone, and the evening decline is beginning to matter the way it long has in California. The effect grows every construction season.
Plotted window Oct 11, 5:00 AM CDT → Oct 13, 11:00 PM CDT. Reissued through the operating day; the latest vintage is shown. Source snapshot Oct 12, 4:30 AM CDT.
| Mon, 10/12 |
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| Tue, 10/13 |
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Darkest cells are the tightest hours. The window peaks at 16,423 MW on Sun, 2 PM, local to the market.