Live market data
MISO solar forecast
MISO's published solar forecast against actual output, spanning yesterday and the day ahead — the fleet rewriting the market's afternoon supply curve.
Fetching the latest published forecast…
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MISO's published solar forecast against actual output, spanning yesterday and the day ahead — the fleet rewriting the market's afternoon supply curve.
How much solar power will MISO get?
MISO solar output peaks at 18,487 MW on Fri, 11 AM, against a low of 0 MW — a swing of 18,487 MW across the window. Solar forecast is the heaviest area at 18,487 MW.
Every line above, and who produced it.
What settled — the realized values every forecast here is scored against.
The grid operator's own published forecast for these hours. Source: MISO.
Every settled hour scored against what each forecast said beforehand.
The window peaked at 18,489 MW on Thu, 10 AM; MISO solar forecast called it 17,111 MW — 1,378 MW low.
Each day of the window on its own.
Every hour of the window, shaded by load.
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 8/27 |
| Series | Peak (MW) | Peak hour | Low (MW) | Average (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar forecast | 18,487 | Fri, 11 AM | 0 | 7,345 |
| Solar settled (recent) | 18,489 | Thu, 10 AM | -51 | 8,002 |
| Forecast | Avg miss (MW) | Avg miss % | Bias | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISO solar forecast | 746 | 48.0% | −639 | 23 |
The latest published vintage of each forecast, against what settled. Smaller is better on every column. Bias is signed: positive means the forecast ran high.
| Forecast | Produced by | Method | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar forecast | MISO | MISO solar forecast and actual solar output, hourly | Roughly the day ahead, hourly |
MISO publishes a point forecast with no confidence interval. Convective cloud cover is the dominant error source — summer storm days can halve output against a clear-sky forecast.
MISO publishes an hourly solar forecast alongside actual output, spanning the recent past and roughly the day ahead. This page plots both, with the recent hours scored against what actually delivered.
MISO's utility-scale solar fleet has multiplied within five years and continues to grow off the largest interconnection-queue backlog in its history, concentrated in Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and the South. Midwestern summer afternoons increasingly clear against solar rather than coal — a structural change in how the market prices.
The scorecard below sizes forecast against delivery over the settled window. Midwestern convective weather — pop-up summer storms — makes solar forecasting here genuinely harder than in the desert Southwest, and the error numbers show it honestly.
curl "https://askthegrid.com/api/v1/grid/radar/curves?iso=MISO&horizon=extended"
Connect your agent to mcp.askthegrid.com and this forecast is a tool call away — the same host Claude and ChatGPT connectors already use.
The fleet has grown from around a gigawatt in 2020 to well over ten, with the market's interconnection queue dominated by more. Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and the southern zones carry most of it.
Clear days verify almost exactly; convective summer days are the hard case, when pop-up storms can take large blocks of the fleet offline against a sunny forecast. The scorecard above shows the recent record in numbers.
Yes — summer afternoon prices increasingly form around solar output rather than coal and gas alone, and the evening decline is beginning to matter the way it long has in California. The effect grows every construction season.
Plotted window Aug 27, 3:00 AM CDT → Aug 29, 11:00 PM CDT. Reissued through the operating day; the latest vintage is shown.
| Fri, 8/28 |
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| Sat, 8/29 |
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Darkest cells are the tightest hours. The window peaks at 18,487 MW on Fri, 11 AM, local to the market.