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NYISO solar forecast
NYISO's behind-the-meter solar forecast for the market day, against the output it later measured — the only place New York's solar fleet is stated as a number.
Fetching the latest published forecast…
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NYISO's behind-the-meter solar forecast for the market day, against the output it later measured — the only place New York's solar fleet is stated as a number.
How much solar is New York actually getting?
NYISO solar output peaks at 4,316 MW on Wed, 12 PM, against a low of 0 MW — a swing of 4,316 MW across the window. Solar forecast is the heaviest area at 4,316 MW.
Every line above, and who produced it.
What settled — the realized values every forecast here is scored against.
The grid operator's own published forecast for these hours. Source: New York ISO.
Every settled hour scored against what each forecast said beforehand.
The window peaked at 4,629 MW on Wed, 11 AM; NYISO solar forecast called it 4,316 MW — 313 MW low.
Each day of the window on its own.
Every hour of the window, shaded by load.
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 8/25 |
| Series | Peak (MW) | Peak hour | Low (MW) | Average (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar forecast | 4,316 | Wed, 12 PM | 0 | 1,385 |
| Solar settled (recent) | 4,629 | Wed, 12 PM | 0 | 1,545 |
| Forecast | Avg miss (MW) | Avg miss % | Bias | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYISO solar forecast | 128 | — | −3 | 44 |
The latest published vintage of each forecast, against what settled. Smaller is better on every column. Bias is signed: positive means the forecast ran high.
| Forecast | Produced by | Method | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar forecast | New York ISO | NYISO behind-the-meter solar forecast and measured behind-the-meter solar output | Through the end of the current market day, hourly |
NYISO publishes a point forecast with no confidence interval. Cloud timing over a fleet spread across the whole state is the dominant error source, and a partly-cloudy day is far harder to call than an overcast one.
NYISO forecasts and measures the output of New York's behind-the-meter solar fleet — rooftop and small commercial arrays that are not dispatched and not metered as generation. This page plots the forecast for the market day against the output NYISO later measured for the same hours.
New York's solar is overwhelmingly behind the meter, which means it shows up on the grid as demand that never materialized rather than as supply. NYISO's fuel mix has no solar category at all for that reason. This pair of feeds is the only place the operator states what the fleet actually produced.
Behind-the-meter solar is what makes New York's net-load curve bend in the middle of the day, and its evening fall-off is what the dispatchable fleet has to ramp against. A summer afternoon in New York City is a solar forecasting problem before it is anything else.
NYISO issues the forecast for the market day and does not extend it into tomorrow, so the forward portion shortens as the day runs out. Measured output arrives a day later, in whole days at once — so the settled curve on this page ends roughly a day behind now, and that gap is the publication schedule rather than a stale page.
curl "https://askthegrid.com/api/v1/grid/radar/curves?iso=NYISO&horizon=extended"
Connect your agent to mcp.askthegrid.com and this forecast is a tool call away — the same host Claude and ChatGPT connectors already use.
Because the arrays sit on the customer's side of the meter — rooftops and small commercial sites that are not dispatched by NYISO. The grid sees their output as demand that never appeared, not as generation, which is why NYISO forecasts it separately.
No. This is the behind-the-meter fleet specifically, which is the overwhelming majority of New York's installed solar. Grid-scale solar that bids into the market appears in NYISO's generation data instead.
NYISO publishes measured behind-the-meter output a day in arrears, a whole day at a time. The gap between the end of the measured line and the present is that schedule, not a page that has stopped updating.
Plotted window Aug 25, 4:00 AM EDT → Aug 28, 11:00 PM EDT. Forecast reissued through the day; measured output published in whole days, about a day in arrears.
| Wed, 8/26 |
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| Thu, 8/27 |
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| Fri, 8/28 |
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Darkest cells are the tightest hours. The window peaks at 4,316 MW on Wed, 12 PM, local to the market.