Hub Average has no clear 7-10 PM discount edge

Hub Average has no clear discount edge for Oct 18, 7-10 PM CDT. The latest 24 hours brought a $33.25/MWh real-time average at Hub Average, compared with $22.69/MWh previously. Neither watch fired, yet Oct 17's 7-10 PM CDT real time still averaged above cleared day-ahead despite wind staying above its low-output condition; that weakens another discount call.

• Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $10.00/MWh, Oct 17, 7 to 10 PM (averaged $6.59).
• Not met: ERCOT wind generation averaging below 2,000 MW, Oct 17, 7 to 9 PM (averaged 2,584 MW).

Use tonight's cleared curve as the reference, with the model's discount only a counterweight. Metis 1 Preview's middle forecast for Hub Average is $40.04/MWh at 7 PM CDT on Oct 18, $5.99/MWh below that hour's $46.03/MWh cleared price. Demand is forecast to peak at 51,785 MW at 8 PM CDT, 2,191 MW above Oct 17's realized peak.

Oct 18's midnight-8 AM CDT real-time averages were $38.00/MWh at Hub Average, $33.23/MWh North and $37.66/MWh South. Load eased to 41,436 MW in the 5 AM CDT hour from Oct 17's 49,594 MW peak. Houston's 24-hour real-time average fell $3.19/MWh to $31.77/MWh. Cleared prices extend through Oct 18's 11 PM CDT delivery hour. No new causal news changes the view. Web research

• Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $10.00/MWh during Oct 18, 7-10 PM CDT would tilt the balanced evening call toward premiums and prompt reserve review.
• ERCOT wind averaging below 9,000 MW during Oct 18, 7-10 PM CDT, versus the published forecast, would trigger joint load, supply, reserve and price review.