Hub Average leans below $27.78/MWh at 9 PM CDT
Friday, Oct 16, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 16 · generated 8:33 AM CTLatest
Hub Average looks slightly more likely below cleared day-ahead during 7-10 PM CDT, with lower demand and the model favoring a modest discount.
- A sustained evening premium would break that lean.
What changed since the last issue#
Hub Average leans toward a smaller discount tonight after its 8 AM-midnight CDT cleared average fell from $46.13/MWh to $14.21/MWh. Oct 15's 4-8 PM CDT discount averaged $28.77/MWh, meeting the watch, while the later premium watch missed with a $2.12/MWh maximum; yesterday's deep discount is not today's base case.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging below -$20.00/MWh, Oct 15, 4 to 8 PM (averaged -$28.77).
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead above $40.00/MWh, Oct 15, 8 PM to Oct 16, 12 AM (peaked at $2.12, 8 PM).
Notable readings
- West Hub real-time averageusual $18.31 to $61.24/MWh · Oct 15 to Oct 16
- $7.25/MWh
- ERCOT Hub Average real-time averageusual $27.85 to $60.24/MWh · Oct 15 to Oct 16
- $27.48/MWh
- North Hub real-time averageusual $24.50 to $60.31/MWh · Oct 15 to Oct 16
- $19.06/MWh
- West Hub real-time peakusual $50.94 to $163.42/MWh · Oct 15, 8 AM CDT
- $37.60/MWh
A smaller evening discount looks more likely#
Expect only a modest Hub Average discount during Oct 16, 7-10 PM CDT. At 9 PM CDT, Metis 1 Preview's middle forecast is $23.24/MWh versus $27.78/MWh cleared, a $4.54/MWh discount. Today's demand forecast peaks at 57,512 MW versus Oct 15's realized 74,982 MW.
South averaged $31.27/MWh in real time over Oct 16's midnight-8 AM CDT hours, compared with North's $17.06/MWh and Hub Average's $19.01/MWh. The hour beginning Oct 16, 4 AM CDT marked the published overnight system-load low: 49,284 MW. Using 7:30 AM CDT load and 6:55 AM CDT renewable forecasts, the projected hourly increase in demand minus wind and solar is 12,301 MW; review evening renewable delivery.
Renewed West separation would warrant constraint review#
Renewed West separation would warrant constraint review this afternoon. At Oct 15, 5 PM CDT, West's hourly real-time-minus-cleared-day-ahead gap was -$75.13/MWh, $45.53/MWh below the typical hub, consistent with congestion between TMPSW and FRYSW, where the constraint carried a $978.27/MWh shadow price at 5:55 PM CDT.
ERCOT reported manual action for Taylor County's unsolved contingency at Oct 16, 7:32 AM CDT; Oct 15's 10:22 AM CDT TSAT advisory ended at 10:39 AM CDT. Forecast generation outages of 24,699 MW at issuance sharpen renewable-delivery risk. Sources for this statementGrid event: Operational InformationERCOTGrid event: Advisory: ERCOTERCOT
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $10.00/MWh during Oct 16, 7-10 PM CDT would reverse the discount, prompting wind and reserve review.
- West Hub's real-time-minus-cleared-day-ahead gap more than $20.00/MWh below the typical hub during Oct 16, 4-10 PM CDT would renew separation, prompting constraint review.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: 1 current source contributed additional context to this issue.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
- Operational Information · ERCOT · operations event, watch; reported by source adapter.
- 640 MW of RUC-committed capacity · ERCOT · reliability event, info; reported by source adapter.
- 87 MW of RUC-committed capacity · ERCOT · reliability event, info; reported by source adapter.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 16, 6:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 to Oct 16, 2026Reading | Oct 16, 2026 | |
| Oct 14 to Oct 15, 2026 | Oct 15, 2026 | |
| Oct 13 to Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14, 2026 | |
| Oct 12 to Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13, 2026 | |
| Oct 10 to Oct 11, 2026 | Oct 11, 2026 |