Lower cleared prices leave West's separation worth testing
Friday, Oct 9, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 9 · generated 2:40 PM CTLatest
Today's lower cleared curve does not erase West's morning premium over day-ahead beyond the typical hub.
- Separate a repeat hub dislocation from an evening price premium as solar fades.
What changed since the last issue#
Today's remaining-day Hub Average cleared-price average falls from $72.56/MWh to $52.39/MWh. Both spread watches and West's averaging condition fired, but demand stayed below its trigger. Price risk, rather than a higher demand assumption, carries into today.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Met: South Hub real time over day-ahead beyond the typical hub above $8.46/MWh, Oct 8, 4 to 10 PM (peaked at $28.96, 4 PM).
- Met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $9.27/MWh, Oct 8, 4 to 10 PM (averaged $21.85).
- Not met: ERCOT system demand above 77,447 MW, Oct 8, 5 to 6 PM (peaked at 75,120 MW, 5 PM).
- Met: West Hub real-time price above $139.21/MWh, Oct 8, 6 to 9 PM (peaked at $317.42, 7 PM).
Notable readings
- West Hub real-time peakusual $55.46 to $142.79/MWh · Oct 8, 7 PM CDT
- $317.42/MWh
- South Hub real-time averageusual $26.76 to $47.26/MWh · Oct 8 to Oct 9
- $71.86/MWh
- West Hub real-time averageusual $28.26 to $56.31/MWh · Oct 8 to Oct 9
- $84.67/MWh
- South Hub real-time peakusual $47.45 to $129.76/MWh · Oct 8, 7 PM CDT
- $209.66/MWh
The price test follows the cleared peak#
Today's Hub Average cleared-price peak is $117.02/MWh at 6 PM CDT, before forecast demand minus wind and solar peaks at 58,924 MW at 8 PM CDT. At that later hour, the model's conditional middle forecast is $63.88/MWh versus $92.34/MWh cleared, $28.46/MWh lower. Forecast demand minus wind and solar rises 12,498 MW in the hour ending 7 PM CDT; storage and imports are excluded.
The load forecast tops out at 72,690 MW in the 5 PM CDT hour. Cleared prices run through 11 PM CDT, beyond the 9 PM CDT decision-window end. Outage capacity is 21,202 MW at issuance. At Oct 8, 7 PM CDT, wind ran 618.66 MW below the wind forecast available before day-ahead closed despite rising output; ERCOT deployed 254.4 MW of Non-Spin at 7:32 PM CDT and recalled all Non-Spin at 10 PM CDT.
West's morning premium is consistent with congestion#
West ran $26.58/MWh above its day-ahead price at Oct 9, 7 AM CDT, $27.37/MWh more than the typical hub, versus its $7.31/MWh usual hourly range. The separation is consistent with congestion: LAKENA SAMATH1 1 carried a $2,800/MWh shadow price, but no new causal evidence identifies West's exposure.
From Oct 9, midnight to 8 AM CDT, Hub Average averaged $48.12/MWh, North $35.81/MWh and South $50.03/MWh; demand averaged 49,453.57 MW (observed prices, not final settlements).
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $20/MWh from 6 to 9 PM CDT would repeat yesterday's evening premium.
- West Hub real time over day-ahead above $20/MWh beyond the typical hub from 6 to 9 PM CDT would extend this morning's separation.
- Hub Average real time more than $20/MWh below its cleared day-ahead price at 8 PM CDT would flag softness at the forecast net-load peak.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: Completed for this issue; it did not add a source-backed explanation beyond the grid, operator, and regulatory evidence cited below.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 9, 8:00 AM CDT, version L20260916b. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 to Oct 9, 2026Reading | Oct 9, 2026 | |
| Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | |
| Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026 | Oct 7, 2026 | |
| Oct 5 to Oct 6, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | |
| Oct 4 to Oct 5, 2026 | Oct 5, 2026 |