Hub Average's $60.49/MWh evening reset leaves a slight discount lean
Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 20 · generated 8:11 AM CTLatest
Hub Average has a slight discount lean against cleared prices during 6-9 PM CDT, supported by the lower load forecast and the model's discount.
- An average real-time premium would overturn that lean.
What changed since the last issue#
Hub Average still leans slightly below cleared prices during today's 6-9 PM CDT window, but Oct 19 weakened that view. The 7-9 PM CDT average premium of $1.25/MWh broke the discount call; West's $0.04/MWh average gap beyond the typical hub missed its below -$5.00/MWh condition. North's 24-hour real-time mean rose from $18.56/MWh to $28.52/MWh, reducing conviction today.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $0.00/MWh, Oct 19, 7 to 9 PM (averaged $1.25).
- Not met: West Hub real time over day-ahead beyond the typical hub averaging below -$5.00/MWh, Oct 19, 7 to 9 PM (averaged $0.04).
Notable readings
- Available day-ahead peakOct 20, 6 PM CDT · ERCOT Hub Average
- $60.5/MWh
- Load forecast peakOct 20, 5 PM CDT
- 59,498 MW
Lower forecast load keeps the evening discount lean tentative#
The lower load forecast leaves a slight lean toward an evening discount. The $60.49/MWh cleared Hub Average peak belongs to Oct 20's 6 PM CDT hour. Metis 1 Preview assigns that same hour a $54.80/MWh middle forecast, leaving a $5.69/MWh discount to the market benchmark. Forecast demand peaks at 59,498 MW at 5 PM CDT, down 635 MW for the same delivery hours since the last issue.
Physical responsive capability was 7,523 MW at 7:57 AM CDT versus 15,695 MW at 5:01 AM CDT, so an evening premium warrants a fresh reserve and operator-notice review.
South becomes the evening relative-discount watch#
South, rather than West, is the sharper relative-discount watch for this evening. South's Oct 20, 7 AM CDT hour averaged $7.93/MWh less than its cleared day-ahead price; the typical hub was $3.57/MWh below day-ahead, putting South's extra discount at $4.36/MWh.
North led the Oct 20 midnight-8 AM CDT real-time averages at $33.92/MWh, against $33.00/MWh for Hub Average and $32.31/MWh for South, keeping North-South separation in focus. By the Oct 20, 6 AM CDT hour, demand's average had recovered to 44,748 MW from 43,314 MW at 4 AM CDT, with the forecast peak yet to come.
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $0.00/MWh during Oct 20, 6-9 PM CDT would overturn today's slight discount lean.
- South Hub's real-time-minus-day-ahead gap averaging below -$5.00/MWh beyond the typical hub during Oct 20, 6-9 PM CDT would extend its morning discount.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: Completed for this issue; it did not add a source-backed explanation beyond the grid, operator, and regulatory evidence cited below.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 20, 6:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 to Oct 20, 2026Reading | Oct 20, 2026 | |
| Oct 18 to Oct 19, 2026 | Oct 19, 2026 | |
| Oct 17 to Oct 18, 2026 | Oct 18, 2026 | |
| Oct 16 to Oct 17, 2026 | Oct 17, 2026 | |
| Oct 15 to Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 |