Evening discounts favored against Hub Average's $103.81/MWh at 6 PM CDT
Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 21 · generated 8:21 AM CTLatest
Hub Average has a slight lean below cleared day-ahead during today's 6-9 PM CDT window, supported by the model's discount and Oct 20's lower settlements.
- An average premium would overturn it.
What changed since the last issue#
Hub Average leans below today's evening clearance despite its 8 AM-midnight CDT cleared average rising from $30.83/MWh to $45.72/MWh. Oct 20's 6-9 PM CDT average discount of $16.19/MWh preserved yesterday's lean; South's real-time-minus-day-ahead gap averaged $0.03/MWh beyond the typical hub, missing its discount condition. Carry forward the broad discount, not South-specific separation. There is no new causal evidence.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $0.00/MWh, Oct 20, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$16.19).
- Not met: South Hub real time over day-ahead beyond the typical hub averaging below -$5.00/MWh, Oct 20, 6 to 9 PM (averaged $0.03).
Hub Average retains a slight evening discount lean despite the higher cleared curve. At Oct 21's 6 PM CDT peak, Metis 1 Preview's middle forecast is $66.06/MWh versus $103.81/MWh cleared, a $37.75/MWh discount. Today's load outlook barely changed: its 5 PM CDT peak of 62,357 MW is just 44 MW above the last issue's projection for today's hours.
During Oct 21's midnight-8 AM CDT, real time averaged $29.54/MWh at Hub Average, $25.60/MWh at North and $29.75/MWh at South. Demand recovered from a 43,715 MW hourly average at 3 AM CDT to 45,342 MW at 5 AM CDT. Physical responsive capability fell from 16,419 MW at 5:17 AM CDT to 10,096 MW at 7:57 AM CDT; an evening price premium would warrant revisiting reserves and operator notices.
Notable readings
- Available day-ahead peakOct 21, 6 PM CDT · ERCOT Hub Average
- $103.8/MWh
- Load forecast peakOct 21, 5 PM CDT
- 62,357 MW
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $0.00/MWh during Oct 21, 6-9 PM CDT would overturn the evening discount call.
- ERCOT demand above 64,357 MW during Oct 21's 5 PM CDT hour, versus 62,357 MW forecast, would trigger an evening-setup review for an upside forecast miss.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: 1 current source contributed additional context to this issue.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 21, 6:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 to Oct 21, 2026Reading | Oct 21, 2026 | |
| Oct 19 to Oct 20, 2026 | Oct 20, 2026 | |
| Oct 18 to Oct 19, 2026 | Oct 19, 2026 | |
| Oct 17 to Oct 18, 2026 | Oct 18, 2026 | |
| Oct 16 to Oct 17, 2026 | Oct 17, 2026 |