Hub Average's $69.80/MWh peak follows a late premium reversal
Thursday, Oct 15, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 15 · generated 8:16 AM CTLatest
Today's cheaper cleared curve still exceeds the model at the peak.
- Separate another afternoon discount from renewed late premiums, after last night's Non-Spin deployments and wind shortfall.
What changed since the last issue#
Today's Hub Average cleared curve averages $46.13/MWh for 8 AM-midnight CDT, down from $62.74/MWh in the prior issue. Oct 14's 6-9 PM CDT real-time-minus-day-ahead averaged -$41.08/MWh: the discount watch met, the premium watch missed, and South and West stayed above their negative watch levels.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging below -$25.00/MWh, Oct 14, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$41.08).
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $20.00/MWh, Oct 14, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$41.08).
- Not met: South Hub real time over day-ahead beyond the typical hub below -$20.00/MWh, Oct 14, 2 to 5 PM (low of -$5.30, 3 PM).
- Not met: West Hub real time over day-ahead beyond the typical hub below -$15.00/MWh, Oct 14, 8 PM to Oct 15, 12 AM (low of -$13.29, 8 PM).
Notable readings
- Houston Hub real-time averageusual $29.58 to $58.92/MWh · Oct 14 to Oct 15
- $58.95/MWh
The lower curve still exceeds the model at 5 PM#
Today's 5 PM CDT Hub Average peak cleared $69.80/MWh versus $48.38/MWh in the model's middle forecast, a $21.42/MWh discount. The 7:30 AM CDT load forecast peaks at 74,333 MW, revised down 1,281 MW from the prior issue for the same delivery hours; price-peak alignment is unresolved.
Across the eight hours beginning midnight CDT on Oct 15, North averaged $46.77/MWh, South $41.51/MWh and Hub Average $44.37/MWh in real time. Published hourly system load bottomed at 52,328 MW in the hour beginning 4 AM CDT.
Late premiums complicate another early evening discount#
Late premiums now frame the separate after-8 PM CDT risk. At Oct 14, 10 PM CDT, Hub Average averaged $103.09/MWh, $43.23/MWh above day-ahead, consistent with balancing pressure alongside Non-Spin clearing prices averaging $67.79/MWh. The wind forecast published Oct 13 at 9:55 AM CDT, before day-ahead closed, overstated Oct 14's 10 PM CDT output by 6,397 MW.
At 8:53 PM CDT on Oct 14, ERCOT activated 603 MW of Non-Spin; by 10:20 PM CDT the operator had recalled all of it.
Reported physical responsive capability then declined from this morning's 5:31 AM CDT high of 14,181 MW to 10,641 MW at 7:57 AM CDT. Today's Hub Average clears $33.91/MWh for 9 PM CDT and ends with the 11 PM CDT delivery hour; renewed late premiums would prompt review of wind, reserves and deployment notices.
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging below -$20.00/MWh during Oct 15, 4-8 PM CDT would extend the afternoon-to-evening discount despite today's cheaper curve.
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead above $40.00/MWh during Oct 15, 8 PM-midnight CDT would repeat late premiums and prompt renewed reserve and wind review.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: 2 current sources contributed additional context to this issue.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 15, 6:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 to Oct 15, 2026Reading | Oct 15, 2026 | |
| Oct 13 to Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14, 2026 | |
| Oct 12 to Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13, 2026 | |
| Oct 10 to Oct 11, 2026 | Oct 11, 2026 | |
| Oct 9 to Oct 10, 2026 | Oct 10, 2026 |