Hub Average's 6 PM cleared peak drops to $53.82/MWh
Saturday, Oct 10, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 10 · generated 8:12 AM CTLatest
Hub Average clears $53.82/MWh for 6 PM CDT, with the model's conditional middle forecast $19.39/MWh lower.
- Yesterday's evening discount shifts attention toward softer evening prices, while South's afternoon separation supplies a distinct hub-spread watch.
What changed since the last issue#
Today's 8 AM-midnight CDT Hub Average cleared prices average $25.85/MWh, versus $52.39/MWh in the previous issue. Both positive-premium conditions missed on Oct 9, but the 8 PM CDT discount condition held; Hub Average's real-time-minus-day-ahead spread averaged -$30.88/MWh over 6-9 PM CDT. Today's lower curve makes another discount more consequential.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $20.00/MWh, Oct 9, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$30.88).
- Not met: West Hub real time over day-ahead beyond the typical hub above $20.00/MWh, Oct 9, 6 to 9 PM (peaked at -$1.34, 6 PM).
- Met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead below -$20.00/MWh, Oct 9, 8 to 9 PM (low of -$40.62, 8 PM).
Notable readings
- Available day-ahead peakOct 10, 6 PM CDT · ERCOT Hub Average
- $53.8/MWh
- Load forecast peakOct 10, 5 PM CDT
- 73,043 MW
Evening softness meets a lower cleared curve#
Hub Average's Oct 10, 6 PM CDT cleared peak is $53.82/MWh, against the model's conditional middle forecast of $34.43/MWh, a $19.39/MWh discount. Today's physical peaks bracket the cleared-price peak: gross demand is forecast at 73,043 MW at 5 PM CDT, and demand minus forecast wind and solar tops out at 48,166 MW at 8 PM CDT. The evening watch stops at 9 PM CDT; later cleared prices extend through the 11 PM CDT delivery hour.
Midnight-8 AM CDT observed real-time prices averaged $24.92/MWh at Hub Average, $23.81/MWh North and $30.32/MWh South; demand averaged 47,777 MW. ERCOT delayed today's day-ahead posting at Oct 9, 1:25 PM CDT, then reported completion at 2 PM CDT. ERCOT's Oct 9 Non-Spin deployment began with 374 MW at 7:40 PM CDT, with all Non-Spin recalled by 9:05 PM CDT. Forecast outages of 21,192 MW at issuance keep availability on today's risk list.
South's afternoon separation is consistent with congestion#
The Oct 9, 3 PM CDT South real-time-minus-day-ahead spread was $11.84/MWh, $16.78/MWh above the typical hub's spread and outside South's $8.71/MWh usual hourly range. The separation is consistent with congestion: the SALDS-Sonterra constraint's hourly average shadow price rose from $333.23/MWh at 2 PM CDT to $1,069.43/MWh at 3 PM CDT. No new causal evidence changes that reading; a repeat this afternoon would warrant reviewing constraints and price components.
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging below -$15.00/MWh from 6 to 9 PM CDT would extend evening softness against the lower curve.
- South Hub real time over day-ahead above $15.00/MWh beyond the typical hub, versus its $8.71/MWh usual range, 2-5 PM CDT would renew afternoon separation.
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $20.00/MWh from 6 to 9 PM CDT would reverse the evening discount.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: Completed for this issue; it did not add a source-backed explanation beyond the grid, operator, and regulatory evidence cited below.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 10, 7:15 AM CDT, version L20260916b. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 to Oct 10, 2026Reading | Oct 10, 2026 | |
| Oct 8 to Oct 9, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | |
| Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | |
| Oct 6 to Oct 7, 2026 | Oct 7, 2026 | |
| Oct 5 to Oct 6, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 |