Lower clearance narrows Hub Average's 6 PM CDT discount lean
Thursday, Oct 22, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 22 · generated 8:10 AM CTLatest
Hub Average has a slight discount lean against cleared day-ahead for 6-9 PM CDT: the model still sits below today's lower curve.
- An average real-time premium would reverse the call.
What changed since the last issue#
Hub Average still leans below today's 6-9 PM CDT clearance, with its 6 PM price reset from $103.81/MWh to $64.60/MWh. Oct 21's three-hour evening discount averaged $38.68/MWh; neither the premium nor upside-demand review condition fired. That preserves the direction of the call, but today's lower benchmark warrants only a slight discount lean.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $0.00/MWh, Oct 21, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$38.68).
- Not met: ERCOT system demand above 64,357 MW, Oct 21, 5 to 6 PM (peaked at 63,001 MW, 5 PM).
Notable readings
- Available day-ahead peakOct 22, 6 PM CDT · ERCOT Hub Average
- $64.6/MWh
- Load forecast peakOct 22, 5 PM CDT
- 64,823 MW
The evening still leans below cleared prices#
Hub Average still leans below cleared day-ahead during today's 6-9 PM CDT window. The model puts Hub Average $13.62/MWh under the 6 PM CDT clearance: $50.98/MWh in Metis 1 Preview's middle forecast against $64.60/MWh in day-ahead. Today's projected load peak is 64,823 MW in the saved forecasts, 355 MW above the prior projection for identical delivery hours.
This morning's physical responsive capability dropped from 14,291 MW (5:03 AM CDT) to 7,247 MW (7:57 AM CDT); if the evening discount reverses, review updated reserve readings and operator notices. Hub Average's cleared curve declines to $26.71/MWh for the 11 PM CDT hour.
South's morning premium is the spread to follow#
South's positive real-time-minus-day-ahead gap is the morning relationship to follow. The Oct 22 midnight-8 AM CDT real-time average was $37.14/MWh for Hub Average, $34.51/MWh for North and $48.69/MWh for South. Overnight demand bottomed at 44,274 MW in the 3 AM CDT hourly average; the 5 AM CDT hour averaged 45,718 MW.
In the 7 AM CDT hourly average, South ran $14.99/MWh above its day-ahead price, $16.06/MWh more than the typical hub, which ran $1.07/MWh below day-ahead. There is no new causal evidence.
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $0.00/MWh during Oct 22, 6-9 PM CDT would overturn the evening discount call.
- South Hub's real-time-minus-day-ahead gap averaging above $10.00/MWh beyond the typical hub during Oct 22, 8 AM-noon CDT would extend this morning's premium.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: Completed for this issue; it did not add a source-backed explanation beyond the grid, operator, and regulatory evidence cited below.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 22, 6:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 to Oct 22, 2026Reading | Oct 22, 2026 | |
| Oct 20 to Oct 21, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | |
| Oct 19 to Oct 20, 2026 | Oct 20, 2026 | |
| Oct 18 to Oct 19, 2026 | Oct 19, 2026 | |
| Oct 17 to Oct 18, 2026 | Oct 18, 2026 |