No clear Hub Average edge against tonight's 6-9 PM CDT clearance
Friday, Oct 23, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 23 · generated 8:11 AM CTLatest
Hub Average has no clear real-time edge against cleared day-ahead for 6-9 PM CDT: the model is only slightly lower.
- An average premium above $10.00/MWh would break the tie and warrant checking reserves and notices.
What changed since the last issue#
Hub Average has no clear 6-9 PM CDT edge against clearance: today's 8 AM-midnight CDT cleared average is $20.66/MWh versus $32.93/MWh for Oct 22. Neither prior watch fired: the evening averaged $20.24/MWh below clearance, and South's 8 AM-noon CDT real-time-minus-day-ahead premium beyond the typical hub averaged $6.17/MWh. The lower benchmark weakens yesterday's discount call.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $0.00/MWh, Oct 22, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$20.24).
- Not met: South Hub real time over day-ahead beyond the typical hub averaging above $10.00/MWh, Oct 22, 8 AM to 12 PM (averaged $6.17).
Today's model sits too close to clearance to favor a direction. At 6 PM CDT, Hub Average cleared $35.49/MWh against the middle forecast of $30.57/MWh, a $4.92/MWh discount. Cleared prices end with the 11 PM CDT delivery hour. The lower cleared benchmark drives today's change in view.
South averaged above North overnight: Oct 23 midnight-8 AM CDT real-time averages were $20.99/MWh and $18.66/MWh, versus $19.94/MWh at Hub Average. The price reset accompanies a nearly unchanged demand outlook: today's 5 PM CDT forecast peak is 64,712 MW, revised up 10 MW for the same delivery hours. Forecast outages rise from 26,612 MW at issuance to 27,467 MW at noon CDT, reinforcing the case for reviewing supply if prices strengthen.
Notable readings
- Houston Hub real-time averageusual $25.90 to $58.62/MWh · Oct 22 to Oct 23
- $24.13/MWh
- ERCOT Hub Average real-time averageusual $24.16 to $53.00/MWh · Oct 22 to Oct 23
- $24.09/MWh
- North Hub real-time peakusual $38.90 to $148.46/MWh · Oct 22, 6 PM CDT
- $38.30/MWh
- Houston Hub real-time peakusual $43.28 to $136.77/MWh · Oct 22, 5 PM CDT
- $40.38/MWh
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $10.00/MWh during Oct 23, 6-9 PM CDT would mark a premium reversal and break today's tie.
- ERCOT's 5 PM CDT hourly demand above 66,712 MW on Oct 23, versus the 64,712 MW forecast, would challenge the balanced evening call.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: Completed for this issue; it did not add a source-backed explanation beyond the grid, operator, and regulatory evidence cited below.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 23, 6:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 to Oct 23, 2026Reading | Oct 23, 2026 | |
| Oct 21 to Oct 22, 2026 | Oct 22, 2026 | |
| Oct 20 to Oct 21, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | |
| Oct 19 to Oct 20, 2026 | Oct 20, 2026 | |
| Oct 18 to Oct 19, 2026 | Oct 19, 2026 |