Neither side favored against Hub Average's 6-9 PM CDT clearance
Sunday, Oct 25, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 25 · generated 8:33 AM CTLatest
Hub Average offers no clear real-time edge against cleared day-ahead for 6-9 PM CDT because the model's average gap is small.
- A premium averaging above $10.00/MWh would break the tie and warrant reviewing reserves and notices.
What changed since the last issue#
Tonight's 6-9 PM CDT Hub Average outlook stays balanced despite firmer Houston pricing. Houston's 24-hour real-time average rose from $23.96/MWh to $28.69/MWh. The Oct 24, 8-11 PM CDT premium watch was not met: real time averaged $6.67/MWh below cleared day-ahead, favoring caution about premiums rather than a stronger discount call.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $10.00/MWh, Oct 24, 8 to 11 PM (averaged -$6.67).
Notable readings
- South Hub real-time averageusual $25.99 to $51.17/MWh · Oct 24 to Oct 25
- $17.49/MWh
- North Hub real-time averageusual $16.81 to $53.50/MWh · Oct 24 to Oct 25
- $14.45/MWh
- ERCOT Hub Average real-time averageusual $19.63 to $53.00/MWh · Oct 24 to Oct 25
- $18.91/MWh
- South Hub real-time peakusual $42.17 to $131.83/MWh · Oct 24, 6 PM CDT
- $28.31/MWh
Small model gap leaves tonight's clearance balanced#
Tonight's cleared curve leaves no directional edge. For Oct 25's 6 PM CDT hour, the model's middle forecast is $35.94/MWh against $35.87/MWh cleared, a $0.07/MWh gap; across 6-9 PM CDT it averages $1.91/MWh below clearance.
Over Oct 25's midnight-8 AM CDT session, Hub Average averaged $19.62/MWh, North $18.12/MWh and South $18.69/MWh, while demand averaged 46,829 MW. Today's forecast load peak is 60,407 MW at 5 PM CDT, 1,680 MW below Oct 24's realized peak. With 26,192 MW of forecast outages in effect at issuance, an evening premium would warrant an availability review.
Houston's wider afternoon separation was consistent with binding constraints#
Houston is the relationship to monitor for a repeat afternoon separation. Against its cleared day-ahead price, Houston averaged a $15.15/MWh premium in the Oct 24, 1 PM CDT hour, $22.00/MWh more than the typical hub's gap. The pattern was consistent with binding constraints: the Blessing-Pavlov constraint's average shadow price rose from $72.58/MWh at noon to $170.02/MWh at 1 PM CDT.
Alongside that move, wind ran 1,741 MW below the wind forecast available before day-ahead closed. By Oct 25's 7 AM CDT hour, Houston's real-time-minus-day-ahead spread exceeded the typical hub by just $0.43/MWh.
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $10.00/MWh during Oct 25, 6-9 PM CDT would break today's tie and prompt a reserves-and-notices review.
- Houston Hub real time over cleared day-ahead exceeding the typical hub by $15.00/MWh during Oct 25, noon-4 PM CDT would repeat afternoon separation, prompting constraint review.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: Completed for this issue; it did not add a source-backed explanation beyond the grid, operator, and regulatory evidence cited below.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 25, 6:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 to Oct 25, 2026Reading | Oct 25, 2026 | |
| Oct 23 to Oct 24, 2026 | Oct 24, 2026 | |
| Oct 22 to Oct 23, 2026 | Oct 23, 2026 | |
| Oct 21 to Oct 22, 2026 | Oct 22, 2026 | |
| Oct 20 to Oct 21, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 |