Hub Average's 8-11 PM CDT outlook still offers no clear edge
Saturday, Oct 24, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 24 · generated 8:33 AM CTLatest
Hub Average has no clear real-time edge against cleared day-ahead for 8-11 PM CDT because the model's discount is small.
- An average premium above $10.00/MWh would break the tie and warrant reviewing reserves and notices.
What changed since the last issue#
Hub Average's 8-11 PM CDT outlook stays balanced despite its latest 24-hour real-time average falling to $16.08/MWh from $24.09/MWh. Both watches missed low: Oct 23's 6-9 PM CDT spread averaged -$8.16/MWh; 5 PM CDT demand was 63,515 MW, with the scorecard mislabeling the 4 PM peak by hour-ending clock. Yesterday's discount favors caution about premiums, not a stronger directional call.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $10.00/MWh, Oct 23, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$8.16).
- Not met: ERCOT system demand above 66,712 MW, Oct 23, 5 to 6 PM (peaked at 63,944 MW, 5 PM).
Notable readings
- North Hub real-time averageusual $20.26 to $53.50/MWh · Oct 23 to Oct 24
- $11.00/MWh
- ERCOT Hub Average real-time averageusual $24.16 to $53.00/MWh · Oct 23 to Oct 24
- $16.08/MWh
- South Hub real-time averageusual $27.16 to $51.17/MWh · Oct 23 to Oct 24
- $18.73/MWh
- West Hub real-time averageusual $14.66 to $61.24/MWh · Oct 23 to Oct 24
- $10.62/MWh
Tonight's model discount is too small for a directional lean#
Tonight's cleared prices leave too little model separation to favor either direction. The model puts Hub Average at $29.48/MWh for Oct 24's 8 PM CDT hour, $5.58/MWh below that hour's $35.06/MWh cleared day-ahead peak; its average discount for 8-11 PM CDT is $4.56/MWh. The curve eases to $23.83/MWh for its closing 11 PM CDT delivery hour.
Over Oct 24's midnight-8 AM CDT session, South's $18.69/MWh real-time average exceeded North's $16.38/MWh; Hub Average averaged $18.12/MWh and system demand averaged 45,658 MW. Today's cutoff-pinned forecast peak is 62,253 MW, down 1,317 MW over the same delivery horizon. An evening premium would warrant a fresh availability review: forecast outages reach 26,068 MW at noon CDT, up from 25,771 MW at issuance.
Houston's afternoon premium was consistent with binding constraints#
Houston's afternoon premium was consistent with binding transmission constraints. Its Oct 23, 3 PM CDT hourly average ran $12.18/MWh above day-ahead, $15.61/MWh more than the typical hub. Alongside the separation, wind output was 14,486 MW versus 16,431 MW in the wind forecast available before day-ahead closed, a 1,945 MW shortfall.
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $10.00/MWh during Oct 24, 8-11 PM CDT would break today's tie and prompt a reserves-and-notices review.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: Completed for this issue; it did not add a source-backed explanation beyond the grid, operator, and regulatory evidence cited below.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 24, 7:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 to Oct 24, 2026Reading | Oct 24, 2026 | |
| Oct 22 to Oct 23, 2026 | Oct 23, 2026 | |
| Oct 21 to Oct 22, 2026 | Oct 22, 2026 | |
| Oct 20 to Oct 21, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | |
| Oct 19 to Oct 20, 2026 | Oct 20, 2026 |