Tonight's $89.44/MWh Hub Average curve follows another evening discount
Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 13 · generated 8:43 AM CTLatest
Hub Average clears $89.44/MWh for 7 PM CDT after Oct 12's evening averaged $19.74/MWh below day-ahead.
- The model also prices tonight lower; separate broad evening underperformance from West's recurring late discount.
What changed since the last issue#
Today's remaining cleared Hub Average curve averages $48.42/MWh, up from $19.37/MWh; the realized 24-hour average increased to $34.21/MWh from $15.86/MWh. Oct 11's 6-9 PM CDT gap averaged -$9.58/MWh, missing both evening conditions: softer than cleared, but not enough for the discount watch.
West met its late-discount condition at -$12.08/MWh beyond the typical hub, keeping separation distinct from evening direction.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging below -$15.00/MWh, Oct 11, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$9.58).
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $20.00/MWh, Oct 11, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$9.58).
- Met: West Hub real time over day-ahead beyond the typical hub below -$10.00/MWh, Oct 11, 9 PM to Oct 12, 12 AM (low of -$12.08, 10 PM).
Notable readings
- Available day-ahead peakOct 13, 7 PM CDT · ERCOT Hub Average
- $89.4/MWh
- Load forecast peakOct 13, 5 PM CDT
- 81,547 MW
Evening softness meets a higher cleared curve#
Tonight's Hub Average clears $89.44/MWh at 7 PM CDT after Oct 12's 6-9 PM CDT gap averaged -$19.74/MWh. The Oct 13, 8 PM CDT disagreement is $14.19/MWh: $69.50/MWh in the model's middle forecast against $83.69/MWh cleared, favoring a lower evening price path.
Load is forecast to peak at 81,547 MW at 5 PM CDT, revised up 1,561 MW for the same hours. With 23,027 MW of outages forecast in effect at issuance, retain supply-availability checks if prices reverse higher.
West's separation stays distinct from the evening direction#
Measured against day-ahead, West's real-time gap averaged -$3.85/MWh in the Oct 12, 1 PM CDT delivery hour while the typical hub averaged +$7.66/MWh; West's $11.51/MWh extra discount exceeded its $8.08/MWh usual hourly range. This was consistent with binding congestion between CRLNW and CYPSW substations, whose hourly shadow price averaged $983.38/MWh.
The wind forecast available before day-ahead closed exceeded realized wind by 430 MW in that delivery hour, contemporaneous supply context. ERCOT canceled the Taylor County manual-action notice Oct 12 at 11:33 AM CDT. Grid event: Operational Information
Oct 13 midnight-8 AM CDT real-time averages were $34.34/MWh at Hub Average, $33.68/MWh at North and $36.13/MWh at South. Demand recovered from a 56,324 MW hourly average at 3 AM CDT to 59,808 MW at 7 AM CDT.
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging below -$15.00/MWh during Oct 13, 6-9 PM CDT would repeat Oct 12's evening discount.
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $20.00/MWh during Oct 13, 6-9 PM CDT would reverse Oct 12's discount.
- West Hub's real-time-minus-day-ahead gap below -$10.00/MWh beyond the typical hub during Oct 13, 9 PM-midnight CDT, versus its $8.08/MWh usual range, would repeat late discounts.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: Completed for this issue; it did not add a source-backed explanation beyond the grid, operator, and regulatory evidence cited below.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 13, 7:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 to Oct 13, 2026Reading | Oct 13, 2026 | |
| Oct 10 to Oct 11, 2026 | Oct 11, 2026 | |
| Oct 9 to Oct 10, 2026 | Oct 10, 2026 | |
| Oct 8 to Oct 9, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | |
| Oct 7 to Oct 8, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 |