$115.84/MWh at 6 PM lifts Hub Average's cleared peak
Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026 · ERCOT data as of 8:00 AM CDT
Issue of Oct 14 · generated 8:38 AM CTLatest
Hub Average clears a higher evening peak, but the model still favors prices below day-ahead.
- Separate another broad evening discount from South's afternoon and West's late separation.
What changed since the last issue#
Hub Average's higher 6 PM CDT cleared peak follows Oct 13's 6-9 PM CDT average $24.43/MWh discount to day-ahead, versus $19.74/MWh on Oct 12. Its 24-hour real-time average rose from $34.21/MWh to $49.04/MWh. The discount and late West watches met; the premium watch missed low, keeping evening direction separate from hub separation.
From the last issue's watch list#
- Met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging below -$15.00/MWh, Oct 13, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$24.43).
- Not met: ERCOT Hub Average real time over day-ahead averaging above $20.00/MWh, Oct 13, 6 to 9 PM (averaged -$24.43).
- Met: West Hub real time over day-ahead beyond the typical hub below -$10.00/MWh, Oct 13, 9 PM to Oct 14, 12 AM (low of -$21.30, 9 PM).
The model still favors an evening discount#
Today's Hub Average peak clears $115.84/MWh at 6 PM CDT, against $97.08/MWh in the model's middle forecast, an $18.76/MWh discount. Forecast demand peaks at 80,220 MW at 4 PM CDT, before the cleared price peak. Hub Average also clears $43.43/MWh for the 11 PM CDT delivery hour.
During Oct 14 midnight-8 AM CDT, Hub Average averaged $37.51/MWh, North $37.38/MWh and South $37.54/MWh in real time; demand's low was 57,108 MW at 5 AM CDT. ERCOT began Hill County planned-outage manual action Oct 13 at 7:25 PM CDT and canceled it at 8:51 PM CDT. Grid event: Operational Information
South's afternoon separation joins West's late discount#
South's Oct 13, 3 PM CDT real-time-minus-day-ahead averaged -$9.89/MWh (all 13 SCED readings), versus the typical hub's +$41.95/MWh, a $51.84/MWh extra discount against its $8.72/MWh usual hourly range. This was consistent with congestion between CONCHO and SAEM substations at a $2,800/MWh shadow-price cap. Wind ran 3,922 MW below the wind forecast available before day-ahead closed that hour, contemporaneous supply context.
West's Oct 13, 8 PM CDT hourly gap was -$45.15/MWh versus the typical hub's -$21.29/MWh, a $23.86/MWh extra discount against its $8.23/MWh usual hourly range. That separation was consistent with binding constraints, including Rockett-RocketSW at a $1,118/MWh average shadow price.
What to watch today#
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging below -$25.00/MWh during Oct 14, 6-9 PM CDT would deepen the repeated evening discount.
- Hub Average real-time minus cleared day-ahead averaging above $20.00/MWh during Oct 14, 6-9 PM CDT would reverse the latest evening discount.
- South Hub's real-time-minus-day-ahead gap below -$20.00/MWh beyond the typical hub during Oct 14, 2-5 PM CDT, versus its $8.72/MWh usual hourly range, would repeat afternoon separation.
- West Hub's real-time-minus-day-ahead gap below -$15.00/MWh beyond the typical hub during Oct 14, 8 PM-midnight CDT, versus its $8.23/MWh usual hourly range, would repeat a late hourly extra discount.
Ask the agent
The agent answers from this issue and checks the live data.
Sources and web research
Web research: Completed for this issue; it did not add a source-backed explanation beyond the grid, operator, and regulatory evidence cited below.
- National Digital Forecast Database maximum-temperature forecast · NOAA/NWS · Official historical WMS rendering valid 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The exact PNG bytes and source request were archived with this issue.
11 Ask the Grid datasets, frozen at the issue cutoff
- Dataset: ercot.lmp_by_settlement_point · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average real-time price, North Hub real-time price, South Hub real-time price, West Hub real-time price, Houston Hub real-time price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.spp_day_ahead_hourly · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT Hub Average day-ahead price, ERCOT Hub Average cleared day-ahead price, North Hub day-ahead price, North Hub cleared day-ahead price, South Hub day-ahead price, South Hub cleared day-ahead price, West Hub day-ahead price, West Hub cleared day-ahead price, Houston Hub day-ahead price, Houston Hub cleared day-ahead price in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.system_load · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system demand in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.load_forecast · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT system load forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.supply_demand · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT committed capacity, ERCOT capacity forecast in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.sced_system_lambda · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT SCED system lambda in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_resource_outage_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT forecast generation outage capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.hourly_ruc_committed_capacity · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT RUC committed capacity in this issue.
- Dataset: ercot.shadow_prices_sced · Ask the Grid data catalog · Supports ERCOT binding constraint count, ERCOT maximum absolute constraint shadow price in this issue.
- Additional Ask the Grid market series · Ask the Grid · ERCOT battery fleet net output, ERCOT wind generation, ERCOT wind forecast, ERCOT solar generation, ERCOT solar forecast, as published at the issue cutoff and kept with this issue.
- Metis 1 Preview nodal price ERCOT Hub Average probabilistic price forecast · Ask the Grid · Forecast issued Oct 14, 6:55 AM CDT, version V20261009. The low-end, middle and high-end forecasts are averages of the model's intervals within each complete hour.
Written by the grid agent from 29 market series, and checked against them before it was sent. All requested series were fetched.
All issues
| Issue | Generated | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 to Oct 14, 2026Reading | Oct 14, 2026 | |
| Oct 12 to Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13, 2026 | |
| Oct 10 to Oct 11, 2026 | Oct 11, 2026 | |
| Oct 9 to Oct 10, 2026 | Oct 10, 2026 | |
| Oct 8 to Oct 9, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 |