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LiveMetiscast · probabilistic price forecast · ERCOT hub

Metiscast Hub

metis/ercot-hub

Price forecasts for ERCOT's trading hubs.

Forecasts at the reference points bilateral and financial positions are written against — ERCOT's seven trading hubs, including the hub average.

How it works

The same Metiscast model as the nodal and zonal products, addressed at hub settlement points. Hubs are the reference prices most contracts are struck on, so this is the product to compare against a forward curve or a cleared day-ahead position. Issued every 15 minutes at five-minute resolution, across horizons from one hour to one week.

Inputs

  • ERCOT settlement-point prices — real-time (SCED) and day-ahead
  • System load, generation mix, and renewable output
  • Weather fields — forecast and observed
  • Grid geography — settlement-point coordinates and network topology

Outputs

  • A p50 price path with its p10 and p90 band, per horizon
  • Five-minute resolution across a 48-hour realized and forward window
  • An issuance timestamp, so a forecast can be scored against what it knew

Three ways to consume it

product · inference · MCP
01

In the product

Metiscast Hub powers Ask the Grid directly — the live map, the radar, and the grid agent read it in place, so the same model you'd call is the one already reasoning over the grid on screen.

02

Developer inference service

A direct, typed inference API: request forecasts or embeddings by node and horizon and get structured results back. This is a plain inference endpoint — not MCP — for pipelines, notebooks, and services that want the model output without an agent in the loop.

See the developer surface
03

MCP

The same model outputs, exposed as tools your own agent can call. Point a compatible client at the Ask the Grid MCP server and the model becomes a tool in your agent's own loop.

Build with MCP

Intended use

  • Comparing a model path against forwards and day-ahead clears
  • Scoring a forecast vintage against what actually settled
  • Feeding dispatch, hedging, and position models that need a distribution rather than a point

Limitations

  • ERCOT only today; other markets follow as evaluation lands
  • Probabilistic, not a guarantee — the band is the forecast, not decoration
  • Bands widen with horizon; a one-week path is not a five-minute nowcast

Consume it in the product, over the inference API, or through MCP.

Every model reaches the same three surfaces. Start where you work and the model output comes back with its source and as-of attached.